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Rollout

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Friday, 24 August 2007, at 4:40 p.m.

In Response To: Game winning roll? (Chuck Bower)

I tried to figure this out OtB but was unsuccessful. (I guess my choice showed that. :) Hitting is the easier one to compute -- with two on the bar, White pretty much has to hit now. But for the lift option things go a few rolls deeper and that isn't so easy to calculate, even with pencil and paper.

Regarding gammon potential, it is quite likely that if they mattered the hit play would come out ahead (only needing ~2% more). But this rollout doesn't tell us that (at least not confidently so) since GNU-bg knows that G's don't matter so it might be playing a bit differently than it would under those conditions.

The score (after 0 games) is: White 0, Blue 0 (match to 1 point, post-Crawford play)

Move number 27: Blue to play 64

Pip counts: White 95, Blue 61
Position ID: 7rZBBED37QQAIA Match ID: cAkzAAAAAAAA

• Blue moves 24/14*

Alert: bad move ( -0.020)

Alert: lucky roll! ( +0.467)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	R	24/18 6/2	+0.3902
			0.6951 0.2337 0.0011 - 0.3049 0.0088 0.0004 +0.3902 +0.3902 0.0016 0.0110 0.0004 - 0.0016 0.0075 0.0003 0.0033 0.0033
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			540 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1072073536 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
•	??	R	24/14*	+0.3701 ( -0.0201)
			0.6851 0.4085 0.0085 - 0.3149 0.1002 0.0048 +0.3701 +0.3701 0.0020 0.0142 0.0032 - 0.0020 0.0090 0.0020 0.0041 0.0041
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			540 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1072073536 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• Game winning roll?
  Chuck Bower -- Thursday, 23 August 2007, at 1:51 a.m.
  • Game winning roll?
    Bill Riles -- Thursday, 23 August 2007, at 2:02 a.m.
    • Game winning roll?
      Mislav Radica -- Thursday, 23 August 2007, at 11:06 a.m.
      • Game winning roll?
        Chuck Bower -- Thursday, 23 August 2007, at 2:22 p.m.
        • Game winning roll?
          garyo -- Saturday, 15 September 2007, at 8:04 a.m.
  • Game winning roll?
    Dave -- Thursday, 23 August 2007, at 3:39 p.m.
  • Game winning roll?
    neilkaz -- Thursday, 23 August 2007, at 5:40 p.m.
  • Rollout
    Chuck Bower -- Friday, 24 August 2007, at 4:40 p.m.
    • M$G$
      Daniel Murphy -- Saturday, 25 August 2007, at 4:56 a.m.
      • M$G$
        Chuck Bower -- Saturday, 25 August 2007, at 11:15 p.m.
        • M$G$
          Daniel Murphy -- Saturday, 25 August 2007, at 11:23 p.m.
          • M$G$ Rollout
            Matt Cohn-Geier -- Sunday, 26 August 2007, at 11:53 a.m.