BGonline.org Forums

Ok, I don't get it (RO)

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Sunday, 26 August 2007, at 1:24 a.m.

In Response To: Ok, I don't get it (RO) (Bryce)

1. In addition to what Chuck wrote about rollout parameters, your rollout has fallen victim to faulty 1-ply filtering, a common mistake:

keep the first 2 0-ply moves and up to 3 more moves within equity 0.1 combined with keep the first 0 1-ply moves means that of the (up to) five best plays on 0-ply Gnubg will examine none of them on 1-ply and consequently examine no plays on 2-ply. So what you have is a truncated 0-ply, not 2-ply, rollout. To avoid this error, if you're going to tweak the filters on your 2-ply rollouts, be sure to uncheck the 1-ply "enable this level" box. Your rollout results will then say "skip pruning for 1-ply moves."

2. Also -- important! -- do change your MET from the awful default Zadeh MET to something else, namely G11 (my choice), or Snowie, or Woolsey.

-> Settings -> Options -> Match -> Load -> /met -> g11.xml

3. Hitting is not wrong because of the match score but because you have cube access since, as you correctly point out, if you had doubled already the correct play would have been 6/3*, the best play cubeless, i.e., at DMP, which you would have after White's automatic redouble.

Before the 2-1 roll you had a very strong position -- marginally too good according to your rollout -- but you rolled a nothing number. With a cash in hand before the roll and most likely still in hand after 2-1 and White's response, you should be reluctant to jeopardize a sure win by giving White 13/36 ways to hit you, rendering your immediate cube access worthless.

4. Rollouts of 9/8 7/5 and 6/3* (a) full (b) truncated at 11 (c) truncated at 10.

The score (after 0 games) is: White 2, Blue 3 (match to 5 points)

Move number 3: Blue to play 21

White	90
Blue	86
Position ID: 3WwHAQhmu1sAAA Match ID: cAmlACAAGAAA

• Blue moves 9/8 7/5

Annotation

1. Rollout 9/8 7/5 Eq.: +0.7432

0.7497 0.0314 0.0006 - 0.2503 0.0057 0.0000 CL +0.5534 CF +0.7432

[0.0004 0.0005 0.0000 - 0.0004 0.0000 0.0000 CL 0.0012 CF 0.0029]

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

324 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1066140390 and quasi-random dice

Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

2. Rollout 6/3* Eq.: +0.6397 ( -0.1036)

0.7685 0.1361 0.0170 - 0.2315 0.0716 0.0049 CL +0.6978 CF +0.6397

[0.0025 0.0038 0.0058 - 0.0025 0.0022 0.0028 CL 0.0083 CF 0.0100]

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

324 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1066140390 and quasi-random dice

Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

1. Rollout 9/8 7/5 Eq.: +0.7472

0.7497 0.0314 0.0006 - 0.2503 0.0057 0.0000 CL +0.5534 CF +0.7472

[0.0004 0.0005 0.0000 - 0.0004 0.0000 0.0000 CL 0.0012 CF 0.0022]

Truncated cubeful rollout (depth 11) with var.redn.

324 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1066140390 and quasi-random dice

Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

2. Rollout 6/3* Eq.: +0.6346 ( -0.1127)

0.7649 0.1435 0.0023 - 0.2351 0.0745 0.0014 CL +0.7014 CF +0.6346

[0.0019 0.0026 0.0002 - 0.0019 0.0021 0.0002 CL 0.0064 CF 0.0072]

Truncated cubeful rollout (depth 11) with var.redn.

324 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1066140390 and quasi-random dice

Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

1. Rollout 9/8 7/5 Eq.: +0.7439

0.7497 0.0314 0.0006 - 0.2503 0.0057 0.0000 CL +0.5534 CF +0.7439

[0.0004 0.0005 0.0000 - 0.0004 0.0000 0.0000 CL 0.0012 CF 0.0024]

Truncated cubeful rollout (depth 10) with var.redn.

324 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1066140390 and quasi-random dice

Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

2. Rollout 6/3* Eq.: +0.6674 ( -0.0764)

0.7684 0.1481 0.0026 - 0.2316 0.0695 0.0012 CL +0.7234 CF +0.6674

[0.0019 0.0024 0.0002 - 0.0019 0.0019 0.0002 CL 0.0060 CF 0.0064]

Truncated cubeful rollout (depth 10) with var.redn.

324 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1066140390 and quasi-random dice

Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

5. Rollouts of cube decision before the 2-1 (a) full (b) truncated at 11 (c) truncated at 10.

The score (after 0 games) is: White 2, Blue 3 (match to 5 points), cube decision?

White	90
Blue	86
Position ID: 3WwHAQhmu1sAAA Match ID: cAmlACAAGAAA

Alert: double decision marked doubtful

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless MWC		74.210%	(Money: +0.8385)
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	75.308%
2.	Double, take	88.067%	12.759%
3.	Double, pass	75.077%	-0.231%
Proper cube action:		Too good to double, pass (1.8%)
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.8676 0.1047 0.0032 - 0.1324 0.0046 0.0000 74.210% 75.308% Standard error 0.0020 0.0041 0.0010 - 0.0020 0.0013 0.0000 0.098% 0.113% Player White owns 2-cube 0.8807 0.2404 0.0017 - 0.1193 0.0081 0.0001 91.875% 88.067% Standard error 0.0018 0.0185 0.0072 - 0.0018 0.0022 0.0000 0.126% 0.180%
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
324 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1066140390 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Annotation

Cube analysis
Rollout cubeless equity +0.9308 (Money: +0.8385)

Cubeful equities:
1. No double +1.0184
2. Double, take +2.0360 ( +1.0176)
3. Double, pass +1.0000 ( -0.0184)
Proper cube action: Too good to double, pass (1.8%)
Rollout details:
Centered 1-cube:
0.8676 0.1047 0.0032 - 0.1324 0.0046 0.0000 CL +0.9308 CF +1.0184
[0.0020 0.0041 0.0010 - 0.0020 0.0013 0.0000 CL 0.0079 CF 0.0090]
Player White owns 2-cube:
0.8807 0.2404 0.0017 - 0.1193 0.0081 0.0001 CL +2.3397 CF +2.0360
[0.0018 0.0185 0.0072 - 0.0018 0.0022 0.0000 CL 0.0100 CF 0.0143]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
324 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1066140390 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Cube analysis
Rollout cubeless equity +0.9492 (Money: +0.8431)

Cubeful equities:
1. No double +1.0421
2. Double, take +1.9949 ( +0.9527)
3. Double, pass +1.0000 ( -0.0421)
Proper cube action: Too good to double, pass (4.2%)
Rollout details:
Centered 1-cube:
0.8662 0.1151 0.0010 - 0.1338 0.0052 0.0001 CL +0.9492 CF +1.0421
[0.0016 0.0035 0.0001 - 0.0016 0.0013 0.0000 CL 0.0062 CF 0.0062]
Player White owns 2-cube:
0.8755 0.0815 0.0010 - 0.1245 0.0077 0.0001 CL +2.3111 CF +1.9949
[0.0015 0.0040 0.0003 - 0.0015 0.0012 0.0000 CL 0.0085 CF 0.0120]
Truncated cubeful rollout (depth 11) with var.redn.
324 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1066140390 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Cube analysis
Rollout cubeless equity +0.9411 (Money: +0.8368)

Cubeful equities:
1. No double +1.0331
2. Double, take +1.9741 ( +0.9410)
3. Double, pass +1.0000 ( -0.0331)
Proper cube action: Too good to double, pass (3.4%)
Rollout details:
Centered 1-cube:
0.8640 0.1132 0.0011 - 0.1360 0.0055 0.0000 CL +0.9411 CF +1.0331
[0.0014 0.0035 0.0002 - 0.0014 0.0013 0.0000 CL 0.0057 CF 0.0055]
Player White owns 2-cube:
0.8729 0.0876 0.0009 - 0.1271 0.0078 0.0001 CL +2.2969 CF +1.9741
[0.0014 0.0037 0.0004 - 0.0014 0.0012 0.0000 CL 0.0080 CF 0.0114]
Truncated cubeful rollout (depth 10) with var.redn.
324 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1066140390 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

6. Full rollout of 9/8 7/5 and 6/3* with White holding the cube on 2.

The score (after 0 games) is: White 2, Blue 3 (match to 5 points)

Move number 5: Blue to play 21

White	90
Blue	86
Position ID: 3WwHAQhmu1sAAA Match ID: QQmlACAAGAAA

• Blue moves 6/3*

Alert: unlucky roll! ( -0.312)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	6/3*	+0.3594
			0.7817 0.2507 0.0100 - 0.2183 0.1082 0.0016 +0.5634 +0.3594 0.0032 0.0276 0.0055 - 0.0032 0.0127 0.0008 0.0064 0.0094
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			180 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1066140390 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	9/8 7/5	+0.2830 ( -0.0764)
			0.7557 0.0944 0.0004 - 0.2443 0.0129 0.0000 +0.5114 +0.2830 0.0021 0.0183 0.0004 - 0.0021 0.0059 0.0001 0.0042 0.0062
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			180 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1066140390 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

7. To present rollouts prettily, -> Edit -> Copy As -> GammOnLine (HTML). Multiple results or any text can be cut/pasted as "Annotations" to the "Commentary" window (-> View -> Commentary).

Messages In This Thread

• Tough one?
  Bryce -- Tuesday, 24 July 2007, at 9:32 p.m.
  • Tough one?
    Stick -- Tuesday, 24 July 2007, at 9:38 p.m.
    • Tough one?
      Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 24 July 2007, at 10:31 p.m.
  • Tough one?
    Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 24 July 2007, at 10:29 p.m.
  • sheesh!
    garyo -- Wednesday, 25 July 2007, at 4:59 a.m.
  • Ok, I don't get it (RO)
    Bryce -- Wednesday, 25 July 2007, at 3:35 p.m.
    • Wow, Stick found a hen's tooth!!
      Chuck Bower -- Wednesday, 25 July 2007, at 4:59 p.m.
      • So did Matt
        Chuck Bower -- Wednesday, 25 July 2007, at 9:37 p.m.
    • Ok, I don't get it (RO)
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Wednesday, 25 July 2007, at 5:21 p.m.
      • Ok, I don't get it (RO)
        Chuck Bower -- Wednesday, 25 July 2007, at 5:41 p.m.
        • Ok, I don't get it (RO)
          Matt Cohn-Geier -- Wednesday, 25 July 2007, at 5:56 p.m.
          • Ok, I don't get it (RO)
            bob koca -- Wednesday, 25 July 2007, at 6:22 p.m.
    • Ok, I don't get it (RO)
      Daniel Murphy -- Sunday, 26 August 2007, at 1:24 a.m.
      • Thanks
        Bryce -- Sunday, 26 August 2007, at 2:22 a.m.
  • $-game RO of 2-1 roll
    Chuck Bower -- Thursday, 26 July 2007, at 8:28 p.m.