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Recent Major Tournament Tough One for the Wizards

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Monday, 27 August 2007, at 3:56 p.m.

In Response To: Recent Major Tournament Tough One for the Wizards (Bill Riles)

If White drops his match winning chances trailing 2-away 1-away Crawford will be X. If White takes his game and match winning chances will be Y. Consult the Match Equity Table of your choice. If Y is greater than X, White should take. If not, he should drop.

Figure that White is far far away from a money game drop on the race alone -- White's up 9 pips! -- and Blue's only huge threat is to close the three point, which isn't likely, and other than that threat contact is favorable to White -- with all due respect for Blue's 4-point board (White may stay on the bar for a while) one in-an-out number leaves Blue struggling to bring 4 stragglers home, one in-an-out number with a hit puts Blue 15 or more pips back in the race -- and conclude that Y must be greater than X. So take.

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