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Crude Attempt At Analysis

Posted By: Paul Weaver
Date: Sunday, 14 August 2011, at 7:47 a.m.

In Response To: Whenever I found a difficult position, I post here! (Mochy)

I hate these idiots on the evening news who try to tell us after the fact the reasons that the stock market took a dive that day. If they really knew anything, they would be able to tell us the day before that the market would take a serious drop.

In attempting to explain this position, I feel like those idiots on the evening news I loathe. I admit I would have run 24/14 quickly and never considered making the 2pt.

Let's take a look at White's position after each of the two plays. We can see that White has some problems after running, while White, after making the 2pt, may create some potential problems for Black.

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 158
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 142
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-a----EbC--BdDA--b-d--b---:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00

First of all, notice that White is giving an immediate direct shot (11 hits). Also, notice, that even if White is missed, he will frequently give a shot on his next turn, as well. After Black misses, White will leave another shot on his next shake if he rolls 31 41 61 52 63 64 22 55 66. Even if Black is not hit on the second shake, he will frequently have a stacked position and he is still not out of the woods.

Now let's look at White's position after making the 2pt.

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 158
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 142
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-aB---DbB--BdD---b-d--b-A-:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00

By making the 2pt, White leaves no shots except Black's awkward 55. On the other hand, instead of leaving a shot, White will frequently get a shot. If Black rolls 51, White gets a direct shot. After Black's 21 31 61 32 42 52 62 43 53 63 54 64, White gets an indirect shot.

Making the 2pt gives White some tactical chances. White will be able to attack immediately or down the road with 55 11. Or, White may improve his board first and then attack later.

Better to be the shooter than the shootee. In other words, it is better for White to get a shot than for White to give a shot.

How do White's numbers play next time after making the 2pt? Obviously, it depends on what Black rolls, but White will almost always be able to do one of these three things on his next shake: make an inner point, run into the outfield or at least play safely on his side of the board.

Black has only eight checkers in the zone and does not threaten to make a prime anytime soon. Although it is usually best to run the last checker with 64 when leading in the race, this position is an exception.

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