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BGonline.org Forums
OLM Tu 8/23/11
Posted By: Stick In Response To: OLM Tu 8/23/11 (Jason Lee)
Date: Wednesday, 24 August 2011, at 8:34 a.m.
First we need to know our take point.
- Double/Pass is 14 away 8 away or 24% match equity
- Double/Take/Lose is 14 away 6 away or 16% match equity
- Double/Take/Win is 10 away 10 away or 50% match equity
We'd be risking 8% (24-16) to gain 26% (50-24) leaving our raw take point at risk/(risk+gain) = 8/(8+26) = ~23.5%. Due to the score I'm going to guess our recube vig is more powerful than usual but let's take a quick look at our opponent's take point on an 8 cube.
- Double/Pass is 10 away 10 away or 50% match equity
- Double/Take/Lose is 10 away 6 away or 29% match equity
- Double/Take/Win is 2 away 14 away or 97% match equity
Risking 21% to gain 47%. This is a 31% take point. He will have no recube vig and his gammons will be worthless. So while his take point is clearly higher it's nothing astronomical. Our recube vig is worth more than usual but not overly so. Our gammons on an 8 cube will still be worth something though.
So let's make our cube vig adjusted take point drop from 23.5% to ~17%. What about gammons? Our opponent clearly wins a lot more of them than we do but our gammons are worth nearly twice as much. We still have what looks to me a surprising amount of play from here as dismal as it looked at first glance. WAG figures of 10% gammons won for us and 25% for our opponent taking the exchange rate into account gives us our fully adjusted take point of ~20%. Do we win 20% of the time from here?
I'll say this, I don't think it's the reflexive drop that we've had as answers so far though. Take a quick dash through how all our opponent's rolls play, we have some life left in us.
Stick
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