[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

Estimate Winning Chances

Posted By: Michael Nielsen
Date: Wednesday, 24 August 2011, at 10:17 a.m.

In Response To: Estimate Winning Chances (Stick)

I would run.

Then I get hit 20/36 after which my chances aren't great. Maybe I win 9/36?

After the 16 misses I will be up in the race with about 1-2 pips I would guess (since all the misses are quite a lot better than average). Blue has more wastage than white with the ace point already made, so the pipcount is probably close to even. With each pip being worth 2%, that would make blue a 58% favorite (or just about 21/36)

So the tally is 180/1296+336/1296 = 516/1296 ~ 40%.

This seems better than staying back, but trying to estimate my winning chances after that play I wouldn't really know where to start, so OtB I would just run because it "feels" right without doing any sort of calculation.

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:
 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.