Estimate Winning Chances
Posted By: Michael Nielsen In Response To: Estimate Winning Chances (Stick)
Date: Wednesday, 24 August 2011, at 11:17 a.m.
In Response To: Estimate Winning Chances (Stick)
I would run.
Then I get hit 20/36 after which my chances aren't great. Maybe I win 9/36?
After the 16 misses I will be up in the race with about 1-2 pips I would guess (since all the misses are quite a lot better than average). Blue has more wastage than white with the ace point already made, so the pipcount is probably close to even. With each pip being worth 2%, that would make blue a 58% favorite (or just about 21/36)
So the tally is 180/1296+336/1296 = 516/1296 ~ 40%.
This seems better than staying back, but trying to estimate my winning chances after that play I wouldn't really know where to start, so OtB I would just run because it "feels" right without doing any sort of calculation.
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