Estimate Winning Chances
Posted By: christian munk-christensen In Response To: Estimate Winning Chances (christian munk-christensen)
Date: Wednesday, 24 August 2011, at 12:29 p.m.
In Response To: Estimate Winning Chances (christian munk-christensen)
I think I was a little generous with my wins after being hit.
When hit I think most of my winning chances occur when I enter on the first shake. I can expect to enter on the first shake 50'ish percent of the time so to win 6/20 games, I'd have to be a 12/20 favourite when after entering. Clearly I am still a dog as I will have 1 guy back, partly trapped and I will be a close dog in the race. So winning 6/20 games after a hit is clearly too much.
I now think I will win 4 games after being hit, bringing my total wins to 16/36 = 44%.
Despite the slightly lower winning chances than in my first SWAG numbers, I would never consider another play OTB. It's the kind of play I would next (but then again I next a lot of plays, sometimes even too many plays).
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