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OLM Tu 8/23/11

Posted By: Michael Nielsen
Date: Wednesday, 24 August 2011, at 11:37 a.m.

In Response To: OLM Tu 8/23/11 (Jason Lee)

Using NNN:

Pass: -14,-8 ~ 25%
Lose single: -14,-6 ~ 17%
Lose gammon: -14,-2 ~ 3% (from memory)
Win single: 50%
Win gammon (or single on 8): -6, -10 ~ 72%

Let's say XG wins a gammon 25% of the time. That would put our winning chances after a loss at 13.5%, so we are risking 11.5%.

I will just guess, that we win 8 or 16 points here often enough to raise our gain to 40% (65-25), since we will be recubing with just a glimmer of a chance.

So all in all TP is 11.5/(11.5+40)~22%.

This is a lot lower than the TP for money with the same gammon fractions and our game isn't that hopeless, I think. XG could get stuck on the ace or fail to cover the deuce and we enter and hit.

Of course her position still is very strong, but I feel like we can justify a Take

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