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Estimate Winning Chances

Posted By: Joe Russell
Date: Wednesday, 24 August 2011, at 11:38 a.m.

In Response To: Estimate Winning Chances (Stick)

After 22 to 15, you lead by 20 pips.

You are missed 16 times. These can be broken down into two classes, the big doubles and everything else.

There are three big doubles. They average 20 pips. You will be on shake in an 89 pip race with an even pip count. You should win about 57% of these games. 3*.57=1.71.

The other 13 non-hitting shakes average about 8 pips. With your average 12 pip lead you will have a double and win about 75% of these games. 13*.75 = 9.75.

When you are hit, you will lose 10 pips in the race, plus your opponents average roll will be about 6 pips. You will be shooting from the bar with a 4 pip lead. If you dance you will have to pass.

There are two ways you can come-in, the 24-point and the 22-point. You should win about 25% of the 9 times you enter on the 24-point and about 30% of the 11 games you enter on the 22 point, since some of these will hit-a 3-6 will often hit on the 16 point. .25* 9 =2.25 + .3 * 11 =3.33

Summing; 1.71+9.75+2.25+3.33= =16.74/36

You will win ~46.5% after 22-15.

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