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Estimate Winning Chances

Posted By: Bob Koca
Date: Wednesday, 24 August 2011, at 5:17 p.m.

In Response To: Estimate Winning Chances (neilkaz)

"when missed (ave miss is likely over 10 pips)"

Consider a 4 sided die with values 2, 4, 5, 6. Ignoring doubles the avg roll is (2+4+5+6)/2 = 8.5 1/4 of the time there will be a double gaining on average 8.5 pips. 8.5 + (1/4)(8.5) = 10.625

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