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OLM Tu 8/23/11

Posted By: Stick
Date: Wednesday, 24 August 2011, at 11:32 p.m.

In Response To: OLM Tu 8/23/11 (Daniel Murphy)

What should you know already? You should know your dead cube take point for money is 25% and your live cube take point is ~21.5% and can even fall below that in rare cases down to ~20%. (ignoring the most extreme case where it can actually be 18.5%) That's a scale of 3.5% (normal) to 5.0% (very rarely) Now in this problem we looked at our opponent's recube take point (raw and live for all intensive purposes) and it came out to 31%, noticeably above a normal take point but not outlandish. By the non mathematical common sense comparison to money approach we should figure there's no way really our recube vig would be worth anything less than 5% and it's likely worth more. How much more? Take your stab here, experience doing this will help you greatly.

We are trying to make good OtB approximations when looking at problems. If you take the exact numbers from my post I'm sure here or there I'm off a half percent due to rounding and because of that my bottom line will be off by hopefully no more than 1% in the bottom line. Any time I feel I may be rounding that can significantly affect the bottom line I keep that in my head. As Neil said, you shouldn't round using Neil's Numbers but doing math in your head I allow myself to do so.

Every time you see a problem on the forums you should figure out what your raw take point is, then your cube adjusted take point, then finally tally in your gammon adjusted take point to arrive at your fully adjusted take point. Doing this allows you to make a very solid approximation of what your recube vig will be worth in comparison to a normal or money situation. At the end of the day I will check it against XG and make sure I'm not too far off anywhere. You will notice if you check my post against XG I'm off a half percent here, a half percent there, and if I remember correctly like ~1% in the final fully adjusted take point. That's fine, that's all I can hope to do OtB. I'm trying to avoid big errors and any cube decision that I narrow down to this close of a decision I should probably be making my double/no double or take/pass decision based on my opponent.

Stick

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