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OLM Tu 8/23/11

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Thursday, 25 August 2011, at 3:18 a.m.

In Response To: OLM Tu 8/23/11 (Jason Lee)

Pass -> 14-away 8-away -> using Neil's New Numbers -> ME = 100 - (50 + 6 * 4.4) = 23.6 = 24%. Take/win gammon -> 6-away 10-away -> using Neil's New Numbers -> ME = 50 + 4 * 5.3 = 71.2% = 71%. Take/win -> 10-away 10-away -> 50% ME. Take/lose -> 14-away 6-away -> using Neil's New Numbers -> ME = 100 - (50 + 8 * 4.4) = 14.8% = 15%. Take/lose gammon -> 14-away 2-away -> (looked it up) -> ME 3%.

Ignoring gammons we risk 9% to gain 26% for a raw TP of 25.7% before gammons and recube vigorish.

Or, if 1/3 of our losses are gammons and 1/2 our wins are gammons, then we're risking 13% to gain 36% for TP of 26.5% before redouble vigorish.

Opp's rolls:

Cover and hit on our 4 point:2
Hit on our 4 point and make the bar point:5
Cover but does not hit on the 20 or make the bar point:17
Make the bar point:10
Sucks:2

How often do we win? My guess:

Cover and hit on our 4 point:5% of 2 = 0.1
Hit on our 4 point and make the bar point:10% of 5 = 0.5
Cover but does not hit on the 20 or make the bar point:15% of 17 = 2.55
Make the bar point:25% of 10 = 2.50
Sucks:50% of 1 = 1.0

A little over 19% of the time. I don't see 6+ percent extra for holding the cube, so I pass.

So ... I pass.

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