Posted By: Stick In Response To: Estimate Winning Chances (Stick)
Date: Thursday, 25 August 2011, at 9:03 a.m.
In Response To: Estimate Winning Chances (Stick)
The reason I posted this is I often speak of simplification in these and other types of positions when I'm trying to make estimates. The more often they come up the better I recognize them and bank that a certain method works or does not. Here you can do all the math as some of you did and it's not that hard for this particular problem but there's really no need.
You count not getting hit as a win, you count getting hit as a loss so you win 16/36 or ~44% after running. Don't tell me there's no way of knowing when this will and won't work, it works a lot. The only way for someone to use it though is to constantly test it - similar to estimating recube vig by reasoning instead of strict mathematics. If you practice at it you will find a comfort zone. I will try to post more of these as I come across them.
White is Player 2
1 point match pip: 96
Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BBAACB-A---cBa-ab-bbbAb--:0:0:1:43:0:0:0:1:10 Blue to play 43
1. Rollout1 22/15 eq: -0.122
43.88% (G:2.70% B:0.02%)
56.12% (G:6.29% B:0.21%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.125...-0.120) - [%1%]
Duration: 3 minutes 20 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 95629089
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
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