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Rollout

Posted By: Casper van der Tak
Date: Thursday, 25 August 2011, at 8:35 a.m.

In Response To: Rollout (Stick)

You can also note that you get hit more often than not (ratio 20:16), and that you residual winning chances after being hit looks somewhat smaller than your residual losing chances after not being hit - a ratio of 16 to 20 looks fairly accurate. This means that the 'mistake' you make in ignoring these residual chances, multiplied by frequency of occurrence, almost cancel each other out.

That would be the justification for your approach here and to recognize that it will work.

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