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Trying to sum up, 166k RO.

Posted By: Higonefive
Date: Saturday, 27 August 2011, at 2:46 p.m.

In Response To: All-in? (higonefive)

Trying to sum up. The gammon wins of the colonel doesn’t matter. They are match wins. You can’t put them away with doubling. They are here and will stay. You have to look what a double gains and what a double looses. A double looses the match equity where you loose only 1 point. But you have to think about a double from the colonel, when he is hit, and isn’t anymore to good to double, or even an underdog, but pushing now on his own market loosers. That lowers the fraction of games, where you can stay in the match with 1aC-2a, delaying a double. A double prevents the colonol from saving his match losses, passing on your market loosers. And there are definetely a lot. A hit on the two point , shooting twice on the remaining blot, and a dance, will be a market looser. Timothy Chow once said, it isn’t just pushing the buttons and make a RO. Well said. But so far we have nothing beyond meaning and saying. Here is a 166K RO. Dead race. Two hairs for no double. But if there is a chance one in a thousend, that your opponent will drop, then you gain with a double, XG2 said. And neilkaz said, there must be a lot of cube errors by the colonel. Why not pushing on a possible drop?




White is Colonel

score: 0
pip: 16
2 point match
pip: 122
score: 0

Blue is Mikey
XGID=-BBBBC---------A----a-caC-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:2:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 39,29% (G:0,00% B:0,00%) 40,19% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 60,71% (G:37,44% B:26,55%) 59,81% (G:38,69% B:26,60%)
Cubeless Equities -0,895 -0,553
Cubeful Equities
No double:-0,551±0,001 (-0,552..-0,550)
Double/Take:-0,553 (-0,002)±0,001 (-0,554..-0,552)
Double/Pass:+1,000 (+1,551)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 0,1%
Rollout details
165888 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:98,8%
Take Decision confidence:100,0%
Duration: 1 day 09 hours 11 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00, MET: Kazaross XG2

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