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BGonline.org Forums
How do you compare to the Giants?
Posted By: Daniel Murphy In Response To: How do you compare to the Giants? (benf)
Date: Wednesday, 11 January 2012, at 8:16 a.m.
There was an exchange of views on this topic last year. I believe part of the thread was called "there is no luck in backgammon." So I won't repeat those arguments here, except to say that I remain convinced that luck certainly does exist, and that good luck is a fortuitous event, skill is what enables you to take advantage of luck when you have it, and even if it were true that "luck evens out in end," that wouldn't mean that there is no luck in the short run.
In other words, if while out walking you find a $100 bill on the sidewalk, pick it up, tear it to pieces and toss them to the wind, you are, because of your unusual behavior, no richer than before. But you were still lucky to find the $100 bill in the first place. And no less lucky if you had been wearing special spectacles that made you more likely to spot a $100 bill.
So, when you say:
When I make my 5 point I create an average equity for my opponent of -.229 ...
my view is: what this means is that by rolling and then playing your 3-1 correctly, you've raised your gammon-adjusted probability of winning from 50% to 61.45%. Rather than having "created" luck, your best play of the best opening roll means that you now need less luck in the rest of the game to win the game than you needed before the roll -- just another 38.55% worth, instead of 50% worth -- and your opponent needs more.
Still, phrases like "players creates their own luck," "good players are luckier than bad ones," and "there is no luck in backgammon" have an appeal, and I agree they can be instructive, even if not strictly true, if they help you concentrate on those parts of the game that are under your control and ignore those parts that aren't. So here's a short collection of inspiring quotations:
"Luck is the residue of design." - Branch Rickey
"Luck is the by-product of busting your fanny." - Don Sutton
"I'm a great believer in luck and I find the harder I work, the more I have of it." - misattributed to Thomas Jefferson
"Shallow men believe in luck, believe in circumstances...Strong men believe in cause and effect." - Ralph Waldo Emerson
"It's hard to detect good luck -- it looks so much like something you’ve earned." - Frank A. Clark
"People always call it luck when you’ve acted more sensibly than they have." - Anne Tyler
"Be ready when opportunity comes.... Luck is the time when preparation and opportunity meet." - Roy D. Chapin Jr.
All of these quotations emphasize that good fortune is what befalls those who are best prepared to make the most of it. But here's another, more in line with Phil's "there is no luck in backgammon""
"There is no such thing as luck; there is only adequate or inadequate preparation to cope with a statistical universe." - Robert Heinlein
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