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Hate these spots what would you do ?

Posted By: Michael Nielsen
Date: Sunday, 22 January 2012, at 2:44 p.m.

In Response To: Hate these spots what would you do ? (Sebastiaan Kuijs)

After clearing the 15 you leave 14 shots after which you are pretty much dead, and lose maybe 25% gammons(?), so counting a gammon as half a win, that is worth maybe a couple of extra shots, so that's 16 wins for white.

After a miss blue is maybe 60/40 in the race and there's some crummy misses for white like 11, 21, 32 and 51 so maybe a bit more. Lets give white 8 out 22 for a total of 24.

If you hit I think you can cash if he fans, but again after 20 rolls you are dead with many gammons. If white could win a gammon 40% of the time after a hit it would be a toss up, but I think white's gammon chances are a lot better than that, probably over 50%, so I choose door number one.

I think white should double after either play.

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