BGonline.org Forums

Position for Jeremy Bagai and Everyone Else

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Sunday, 22 January 2012, at 8:28 p.m.

In Response To: Position for Jeremy Bagai and Everyone Else (Fabrice Liardet)

I let Gnubg's "show statistics" have a crack at finding what actually happens in 2-ply rollouts.

After the big play 6/2* 4/2, immediate hits are 11/36 = 30.55%, and White won 7.86% -- a little higher than the "cubeless" numbers in Paul's rollout (or in mine) -- so White is winning 25.7% of 30.55% (later hits must be very few).

You play 6/2* 4/2 You win: 92.14% You win single game: 41.67% 2 points: 40.77% 4 points: 00.40% 5 points: 00.47% You win gammon: 50.33% 4 points: 50.30% 5 points: 00.00% You win backgammon: 00.20% 5 points: 00.20% You lose single: 07.86% 2 points: 05.40% 4 points: 02.20% 5 points: 00.27%

You play 5/3 4/off You win: 95.80% You win single game: 68.50% 2 points: 67.80% 4 points: 00.50% 5 points: 00.20% You win gammon: 27.20% 4 points: 27.20% 5 points: 00.00% You win backgammon: 00.10% 5 points: 00.20% You lose single: 04.20% 2 points: 02.50% 4 points: 01.50% 5 points: 00.207%

	6/2* 4/2	5/3 4/off	advantage 6/2* 4/2
You win 5 points	00.87%	00.40%	+00.47%
You win 4 points	50.70%	27.70%	+27.00%
You win 2 points	40.77%	67.80%	-27.03%
You win (total)	92.14%	95.80%	-03.66%
You lose (total)	07.86%	04.20%	-03.66%
You lose 2 points	05.40%	02.50%	-02.90%
You lose 4 points	02.20%	01.50%	-00.70%
You lose 5 points	00.27%	00.20%	-00.07%

Messages In This Thread

• Position for Jeremy Bagai and Everyone Else
  Paul Weaver -- Saturday, 21 January 2012, at 4:30 a.m.
  • Position for Jeremy Bagai and Everyone Else
    Daniel Murphy -- Saturday, 21 January 2012, at 4:54 a.m.
  • Position for Jeremy Bagai and Everyone Else
    Stick -- Saturday, 21 January 2012, at 9:35 a.m.
  • Position for Jeremy Bagai and Everyone Else
    Fabrice Liardet -- Saturday, 21 January 2012, at 4:06 p.m.
    • Position for Jeremy Bagai and Everyone Else
      Daniel Murphy -- Sunday, 22 January 2012, at 8:28 p.m.