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Daily Quiz 1/21: XGR+ evals

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Tuesday, 24 January 2012, at 2:49 p.m.

In Response To: Daily Quiz 1/21 (Daily Quiz)





White is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 158
7 point match
pip: 133
score: 4

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--b-aCCBC---bC---bccb--A--:0:0:1:00:4:2:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in XG Roller+
Player Winning Chances: 63.23% (G: 19.65% B: 1.06%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 36.77% (G: 7.98% B: 0.33%)
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Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.439
Double:+0.811
Â
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.488
Double/Take:+0.203 (-0.285)
Double/Drop:+1.000 (+0.512)
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Best Cube action: No Double / Take
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eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

For money:





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 158
Money session
Jacoby
pip: 133
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--b-aCCBC---bC---bccb--A--:0:0:1:00:0:0:1:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in XG Roller+
Player Winning Chances: 63.26% (G: 19.76% B: 1.02%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 36.74% (G: 8.02% B: 0.32%)
Â
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.265
Double:+0.773
Â
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.589
Double/Take:+0.522 (-0.068)
Double/Drop:+1.000 (+0.411)
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Best Cube action: No Double / Take
Â

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21






White is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 40
7 point match
pip: 38
score: 5

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aBDBCB----------------cc--:1:1:1:43:5:2:0:7:10
Blue to play 43

1.XG Roller+4/0ff 3/0ffeq: -0.011
Player:
Opponent:
49.43% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
50.57% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
2.XG Roller+5/2 5/1eq: -0.081 (-0.070)
Player:
Opponent:
45.95% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
54.05% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

Variant:





White is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 40
7 point match
pip: 36
score: 5

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aBCBCB----------------cc--:1:1:1:43:5:2:0:7:10
Blue to play 43

1.XG Roller+5/2 5/1eq: +0.273
Player:
Opponent:
63.63% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
36.37% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
2.XG Roller+4/0ff 3/0ffeq: +0.149 (-0.123)
Player:
Opponent:
57.47% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
42.53% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross


Truncated rollout:





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 111
7 point match
pip: 95
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aD--BBB-A-AAb---Baabcd-a--:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
  Player Winning Chances: 69.78% (G: 8.86% B: 0.38%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 30.22% (G: 4.71% B: 0.18%)
Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 69.62% (G: 8.97% B: 0.40%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 30.38% (G: 4.25% B: 0.18%)
Â
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.440
Double:+0.899
Â
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.694 (-0.018)
Double/Take:+0.712
Double/Drop:+1.000 (+0.288)
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Best Cube action: Double / Take
Â
Rollout details
648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
First 2 moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Remaining moves: 2 ply, cube decisions: 3 ply
Â
Confidence No Double: ± 0.011 (+0.683...+0.705)
Confidence Double: ± 0.015 (+0.697...+0.727)
Â
Double Decision confidence: 97.2%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
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Duration: 3 minutes 35 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

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