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Daily Quiz 1/23

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Wednesday, 25 January 2012, at 12:05 p.m.

In Response To: Daily Quiz 1/23 (Daily Quiz)

(1) Leave 22 returns not counting @ the ace point, or 6 returns? I go with 6.

(2) If no hit (17/36), up ~7 pips not on roll, win a little more than 55%. Or a little less than 55%, cuz 11 51 24 don't clear. Let's say 55% wins of the no hits, but less having doubled. If hit, I won't estimate wins because two things stand out: (a) White usually gets immediate returns, mostly winners, on the 9 (4-2 4-3 4-5 5-2 6-1), the 9 and 10 (4-6), or the 9 and 16 (1-1 3-1). (b) If White enters without hitting, easy take. Which should mean there aren't enough total winners/market losers. No double.

(3) There's the backwards board, the outfield blot, the stripped midpoint, the acepoint anchor. Half our numbers enter and hit somewhere -> big favorite and lots of gammons. And 5-2 isn't bad. The other ~half, Opp covers 1/3 of the time, we can still become a big favorite just by entering, and the other 2/3 we're again a favorite to become the favorite, except Opp might lift or anchor up. I'll guess GWC 65-70% and 30% gammons. Pass.

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