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Daily Quiz 1/30: XGR+ evals

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Friday, 3 February 2012, at 12:53 a.m.

In Response To: Daily Quiz 1/30 (Daily Quiz)





White is Player 1

score: 5
pip: 98
7 point match
pip: 92
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=aCB-B-B-B--BA--Aab-dbabb--:0:0:1:00:0:5:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in XG Roller+
Player Winning Chances: 73.58% (G: 2.98% B: 0.04%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 26.42% (G: 2.24% B: 0.07%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.464
Double:+0.868
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.772 (-0.096)
Double/Take:+0.868
Double/Drop:+1.000 (+0.132)
Best Cube action: Double / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

For money:





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 98
Money session
Jacoby
pip: 92
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=aCB-B-B-B--BA--Aab-dbabb--:0:0:1:00:0:0:1:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in XG Roller+
Player Winning Chances: 73.62% (G: 2.86% B: 0.03%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 26.38% (G: 2.17% B: 0.06%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.472
Double:+0.966
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.768 (-0.061)
Double/Take:+0.829
Double/Drop:+1.000 (+0.171)
Best Cube action: Double / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

Looking at this now, I can't think what possessed me not to double.

Truncated rollout:





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 136
7 point match
pip: 111
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aBBBBBB----bb---ab-c-bbC--:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 60.25% (G: 44.41% B: 0.37%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 39.75% (G: 9.50% B: 0.43%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 59.92% (G: 44.40% B: 0.33%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 40.08% (G: 9.39% B: 0.42%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.560
Double:+1.156
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.576 (-0.308)
Double/Take:+0.883
Double/Drop:+1.000 (+0.117)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
First 2 moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Remaining moves: 2 ply, cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double: ± 0.011 (+0.565...+0.586)
Confidence Double: ± 0.017 (+0.866...+0.901)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 1 minute 32 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 157
5 point match
pip: 161
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b----E-C--AeD---a-cbbB---:0:0:1:41:0:0:0:5:10
Blue to play 41

1.XG Roller+11/7 8/7eq: -0.121
Player:
Opponent:		 46.82% (G:11.05% B:0.45%)
53.18% (G:12.57% B:0.46%)
2.XG Roller+22/17* eq: -0.173 (-0.052)
Player:
Opponent:		 47.60% (G:11.83% B:0.66%)
52.40% (G:18.40% B:0.84%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

Variant:





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 156
5 point match
pip: 163
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b----E-C--AeD----acbb-B--:0:0:1:41:0:0:0:5:10
Blue to play 41

1.XG Roller+23/18* eq: -0.196
Player:
Opponent:		 47.00% (G:11.49% B:0.63%)
53.00% (G:18.14% B:0.87%)
2.XG Roller+11/7 8/7eq: -0.314 (-0.118)
Player:
Opponent:		 42.72% (G:10.21% B:0.41%)
57.28% (G:16.20% B:0.70%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

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