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Question for Mr. Murphy

Posted By: Paul Weaver
Date: Tuesday, 14 February 2012, at 5:14 p.m.

In Response To: The answer is easy if you take it logically (Daniel Murphy)

Daniel has informed us that there are 305 legal plays with this 11. I am willing to take his word for it, without confirming it myself.

Here is my question: What is the worst of the 305 legal plays with 11? My guess appears below. Even though White has two on the roof, her chance of winning a backgammon is 42%.

White is too good to double, but she might fan with 44 and then Blue might roll 11 and clean everything up and win a backgammon. White would be steamed for life.

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 109 11 point match pip: 96 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=bAAABAACAB-A-A----bbcbbb--:0:0:-1:00:0:0:0:11:10
White on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	92.91% (G:84.14% B:41.95%)	93.17% (G:84.29% B:42.04%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	7.09% (G:0.80% B:0.03%)	6.83% (G:0.76% B:0.02%)
Cubeless Equities	+2.155	+4.389
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+2.177
Double/Take:	+4.328 (+2.150)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (-1.177)
Best Cube action: Too good to double / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 35.4%

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01, MET: Kazaross XG2

Messages In This Thread

• The answer is easy if you take it logically
  Daniel Murphy -- Tuesday, 14 February 2012, at 4:24 p.m.
  • The answer is easy if you take it logically
    Turz -- Tuesday, 14 February 2012, at 4:49 p.m.
    • The answer is easy if you take it logically
      neilkaz -- Tuesday, 14 February 2012, at 6:05 p.m.
      • The answer is easy if you take it logically
        Turz -- Wednesday, 15 February 2012, at 11:30 a.m.
        • The answer is easy if you take it logically
          neilkaz -- Wednesday, 15 February 2012, at 4:06 p.m.
  • Question for Mr. Murphy
    Paul Weaver -- Tuesday, 14 February 2012, at 5:14 p.m.
    • Question for Mr. Anybody
      Daniel Murphy -- Tuesday, 14 February 2012, at 5:48 p.m.
  • The answer is easy if you take it logically
    christian munk-christensen -- Tuesday, 14 February 2012, at 8:47 p.m.
    • The answer is easy if you take it logically
      Casper van der Tak -- Wednesday, 15 February 2012, at 9:08 p.m.
      • The answer is easy if you take it logically
        Daniel Murphy -- Wednesday, 15 February 2012, at 9:45 p.m.
        • The answer is easy if you take it logically
          Casper van der Tak -- Wednesday, 15 February 2012, at 11:19 p.m.
  • The answer is easy if you take it logically
    Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 14 February 2012, at 11:09 p.m.
    • The answer is easy if you take it logically
      Daniel Murphy -- Wednesday, 15 February 2012, at 4:40 p.m.
      • The answer is easy if you take it logically
        Stick -- Wednesday, 15 February 2012, at 4:50 p.m.
        • The answer is easy if you take it logically
          David -- Wednesday, 15 February 2012, at 8:06 p.m.
          • The answer is easy if you take it logically
            Stick -- Wednesday, 15 February 2012, at 8:29 p.m.
            • The answer is easy if you take it logically
              Daniel Murphy -- Wednesday, 15 February 2012, at 9:17 p.m.
              • The answer is easy if you take it logically
                Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 15 February 2012, at 10:11 p.m.
                • The answer is easy if you take it logically
                  Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 15 February 2012, at 10:13 p.m.
                  • The answer is easy if you take it logically
                    Sam Pottle -- Thursday, 16 February 2012, at 3:56 p.m.
            • The answer is easy if you take it logically
              David -- Wednesday, 15 February 2012, at 9:41 p.m.
  • There must be 50 ways to make a blunder... *NM*
    David Rennie -- Wednesday, 15 February 2012, at 1:19 a.m.
    • There must be 50 ways to make a blunder...
      Stein Kulseth -- Wednesday, 15 February 2012, at 11:54 p.m.
      • +1 rooting for Mott *NM*
        Daniel Murphy -- Thursday, 16 February 2012, at 12:20 a.m.
  • logically - RO
    Daniel Murphy -- Wednesday, 15 February 2012, at 9:27 p.m.