OLM Tu 02/14/12
Posted By: Taper_Mike In Response To: OLM Tu 02/14/12 (Jason Lee)
Date: Wednesday, 15 February 2012, at 2:08 a.m.
In Response To: OLM Tu 02/14/12 (Jason Lee)
After a double/pass, White’s MWC at -7-13 are around 22.5%.
Guessing that White might lose 7.5% gammons (net) gives a nice round figure of 30% as his effective take point in this game. Upper twenties is certainly the ballpark.
Does he have that here? If not, it must be close. After Blue makes the 4pt or 8pt, White’s future is dim. His winning chances fall dramatically, perhaps to the teens. Until then, however, he is threatening to hit a fly shot on every toss. So give him mid twenties right now.
What about market losers? Just about anything that makes the 4pt (44 52) or 8pt (34 35 45 22) must qualify.
My vote: Double
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