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OLM Tu 02/14/12

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Wednesday, 15 February 2012, at 10:34 a.m.

In Response To: OLM Tu 02/14/12 (pontiac)

That is a stat I learned from Phil Simborg in his video seminar on holding games. He gave it late last year for the US Backgammon Federation. There is a new one every month. By all means, please consider joining.

His number pertains to a position where Blue has a much stronger block, such as we might have if we can make the 4pt. With an open 4pt, we can expect our gammon win rate to be lower. Simborg’s number is also based on White having only 2 checkers trapped. With 3, our gammon win rate should be higher, substantially higher if we can trap all 3 behind a strong block. I’m assuming these two effects will cancel out.

White’s collapsing board does not have much effect on the number of gammons he loses. It does, of course, dramatically reduce his chance of winning.

You don’t have to take Phil’s word for it, though, just set up a representative 2pt holding game, and let you bot show you what the numbers are.

Mike

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