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T & T 61: Rollout and Commentary, Thanks.
Posted By: higonefive In Response To: T & T 61: Rollout and Commentary (Paul Weaver)
Date: Wednesday, 15 February 2012, at 11:21 a.m.
In that other thread i wrote:
"White is outboarded 4:2 and two blots vs. 1. Black has an advanced anchor, white only the barpoint. The race is 105:131. White has three spares to play, before he must break a point in front of the anchor. The black front position is ready. Mostly anybody move here would be detoriation, if we consider breaking the 8 point as breaking a blocker.
The veteran once said: when behind, stay behind. Therefore: in the bucket with shifting to the golden point. That leaves one reasonable six: 20/14. Reinforcement for the outfield battle. The barpoint isn’t waiting for a friend. He just want to go home. That leads to our problem: the agony of choice.
Should we took a M21 making the fort on 14, or getting out of the hole yanking our peacemaker getting the bastard caught in the act with moving to 13, aiming for a shootout or bringing the fort in handgun range?
If you check the bible, everything counts for a bold play. Now is the hour. With a center cube, you have even a bazooka in your armoury."
And as an answer to a post:
"You are behind in the race. White has spares to play behind your anchor, waiting for a double to move the men from the barpoint. So plan B is, if white can run the back checkers to safety, to get a shot. The hole on the five point is therefore a liability for white, not an asset. If you are shifting to the golden point, you will do a job for your enemy, taking the hole away. Kit Woolsey once said:"when behind, stay behind". Look at Magriels Safe play vs. bold play criteria. You will see, that here is a bold play indicated:
Do you have an anchor? Yes. How strong is your opponent's inner board? Not so strong. How strong is your inner board? Much stronger. Does your opponent have blots in his inner board? Yes.
How many men do you have back? 4. How many men does your opponent have back? 2.
After all plan A is to play against the bar point, then plan B falling back in a holding game. Simply waiting to win the race (A+) and therefore playing a little bit against the chances of the major game plans must be a loser."
A former world champion wrote:
"This is actually a very tough problem. Over the board, I'm pretty sure I would have made the 14-point. However, the rollouts clearly show that 20/13 is somewhat (.045) better than 20/14 3/2, and significantly better (.08) than making the 14-point.
I would have rejected 20/13 OTB because White isn't forced to hit, since he has spares to move. He therefore has the option of hitting with a perfecta like 6-2, or just waiting and building his board.
After puzzling over this for awhile, I think the point behind 20/13 is that it threatens to make a new blocking point within direct range of White's two rear checkers. If Black does this, he frees his two checkers on the 8-point to build his board, which in turn gives him time to wait while White really does get squeezed. So, for instance, imagine a sequence like
Black 6-1, 20/13 White 4-2, 7/1 Black 3-1, 15/12 13/12 White -- trouble is coming.
I think these sequences are the ones where 20/13 really gains. If I'm right about where the gain is coming from, this is a very interesting problem with an important idea, beyond the obvious "White has blots so we can make a bold play". Thanks for posting it."
Thank you for your new insights Your analysis is nuclear physics compared to Newton's. I have learned:
1. Asking for a point to own. 2. Not only thinking in general concepts, but pondering every move (here, slotting makes the joker 66 weaker). 3. Not only slot to make the fort, but playing against the jokers. 4. Getting something in the hand for other positions.
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