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Still not doubling early at DMP! — Variant

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Wednesday, 15 February 2012, at 8:51 p.m.

In Response To: Still not doubling early at DMP! — Variant (Taper_Mike)

Having estimated that Blue had a No Double by 1% ME in the original position, with the closed board Blue should have an easy double. In the original I had estimated Blue's gain from doubling in the hit followed by no-hit sequences as 0.85 * 0.2121 = 18%, which was 3.6% better than not doubling in those sequences (0.68 * 0.21 = 14.4%). With the closed board, there are zero hit-hit sequences, and zero hit-no hit-no cover sequences. So 0.85 GWC becomes 0.98, and 0.21 sequences becomes 0.305. And the two equations become

0.98 * 0.305 = 30%
0.68 * 0.305 = 20%

30% is too high because I've ignored that Blue doesn't always win with 3-3. And the 20% is too low because if Blue doesn't double before hitting, I guess he's stuck with, I think, a marginal play-on for gammon a while. But with better estimates I can't see either number changing enough for Blue not to double in the closed board position.

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