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logically - RO

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Wednesday, 15 February 2012, at 9:27 p.m.

In Response To: The answer is easy if you take it logically (Daniel Murphy)

I didn't save them in .sgg files, but I believe these are all money game rollouts.

Blue to play 11

White	93
Blue	100
Position ID: tt0GBALVbBsGAA Match ID: cIkEAAAAAAAE

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	13/11*/10 3/2	-0.0160
			0.4931 0.0756 0.0023 - 0.5069 0.2230 0.0084 -0.1674 -0.0160 0.0026 0.0027 0.0003 - 0.0026 0.0042 0.0010 0.0075 0.0155
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			327 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 907918940 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	6/5*(2) 3/1	-0.1140 ( -0.0979)
			0.4578 0.0476 0.0008 - 0.5422 0.1699 0.0024 -0.2083 -0.1140 0.0023 0.0020 0.0002 - 0.0023 0.0044 0.0004 0.0061 0.0101
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			326 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 907918940 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	R	13/12(2) 4/3 2/1	-0.1977 ( -0.1817)
			0.4310 0.0098 0.0002 - 0.5690 0.0397 0.0007 -0.1684 -0.1977 0.0020 0.0010 0.0000 - 0.0020 0.0036 0.0005 0.0030 0.0075
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			326 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 907918940 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	4	R	7/6(2) 4/3 2/1	-0.2066 ( -0.1906)
			0.4233 0.0114 0.0002 - 0.5767 0.0402 0.0005 -0.1825 -0.2066 0.0013 0.0011 0.0001 - 0.0013 0.0029 0.0017 0.0030 0.0063
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			326 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 907918940 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

The next two rollouts illustrate the swing on White 9 fanning numbers.

Blue played 6/5*(2) 3/1 followed by a fan. Cube decision?

White	98
Blue	96
Position ID: tt0GBEDLZhsGAA Match ID: cAkAAAAAAAAE

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.4732
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, take	+0.8572
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	+0.1428
3.	No double	+0.6922	-0.1650
Proper cube action:		Double, take
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.6967 0.1226 0.0018 - 0.3033 0.0440 0.0008 +0.4732 +0.6922 Standard error 0.0008 0.0009 0.0001 - 0.0008 0.0009 0.0002 0.0019 0.0031 Player White owns 2-cube 0.7078 0.1169 0.0016 - 0.2922 0.0425 0.0010 +0.9813 +0.8572 Standard error 0.0010 0.0013 0.0001 - 0.0010 0.0009 0.0002 0.0048 0.0053
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1981 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 907918940 and quasi-random dice
Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Annotation

Cube analysis
4-ply cubeless equity +0.4687
0.6900 0.1358 0.0021 - 0.3100 0.0485 0.0006
Cubeful equities:
1. Double, take +0.7716
2. Double, pass +1.0000 ( +0.2284)
3. No double +0.6634 ( -0.1083)
Proper cube action: Double, take

Blue played 13/11*10 3/2 followed by a fan. Cube decision?

White	104
Blue	96
Position ID: tt0GAEHNbFsEAA Match ID: cAkAAAAAAAAE

• Blue doubles

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.5531
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, pass	+1.0000
2.	Double, take	+1.0007	+0.0007
3.	No double	+0.7041	-0.2959
Proper cube action:		Double, pass
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.7212 0.1893 0.0036 - 0.2788 0.0767 0.0055 +0.5531 +0.7041 Standard error 0.0009 0.0016 0.0002 - 0.0009 0.0011 0.0004 0.0027 0.0043 Player White owns 2-cube 0.7276 0.1881 0.0033 - 0.2724 0.0796 0.0060 +1.1220 +1.0007 Standard error 0.0010 0.0016 0.0002 - 0.0010 0.0011 0.0004 0.0057 0.0070
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1980 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 907918940 and quasi-random dice
Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Annotation

Cube analysis
2-ply cubeless equity +0.5273
0.7048 0.2001 0.0038 - 0.2952 0.0826 0.0035
Cubeful equities:
1. Double, take +0.8965
2. Double, pass +1.0000 ( +0.1035)
3. No double +0.6620 ( -0.2345)
Proper cube action: Double, take

Cube analysis
4-ply cubeless equity +0.5403
0.7045 0.2162 0.0037 - 0.2955 0.0843 0.0043
Cubeful equities:
1. Double, take +0.9280
2. Double, pass +1.0000 ( +0.0720)
3. No double +0.6729 ( -0.2551)
Proper cube action: Double, take

Messages In This Thread

• The answer is easy if you take it logically
  Daniel Murphy -- Tuesday, 14 February 2012, at 4:24 p.m.
  • The answer is easy if you take it logically
    Turz -- Tuesday, 14 February 2012, at 4:49 p.m.
    • The answer is easy if you take it logically
      neilkaz -- Tuesday, 14 February 2012, at 6:05 p.m.
      • The answer is easy if you take it logically
        Turz -- Wednesday, 15 February 2012, at 11:30 a.m.
        • The answer is easy if you take it logically
          neilkaz -- Wednesday, 15 February 2012, at 4:06 p.m.
  • Question for Mr. Murphy
    Paul Weaver -- Tuesday, 14 February 2012, at 5:14 p.m.
    • Question for Mr. Anybody
      Daniel Murphy -- Tuesday, 14 February 2012, at 5:48 p.m.
  • The answer is easy if you take it logically
    christian munk-christensen -- Tuesday, 14 February 2012, at 8:47 p.m.
    • The answer is easy if you take it logically
      Casper van der Tak -- Wednesday, 15 February 2012, at 9:08 p.m.
      • The answer is easy if you take it logically
        Daniel Murphy -- Wednesday, 15 February 2012, at 9:45 p.m.
        • The answer is easy if you take it logically
          Casper van der Tak -- Wednesday, 15 February 2012, at 11:19 p.m.
  • The answer is easy if you take it logically
    Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 14 February 2012, at 11:09 p.m.
    • The answer is easy if you take it logically
      Daniel Murphy -- Wednesday, 15 February 2012, at 4:40 p.m.
      • The answer is easy if you take it logically
        Stick -- Wednesday, 15 February 2012, at 4:50 p.m.
        • The answer is easy if you take it logically
          David -- Wednesday, 15 February 2012, at 8:06 p.m.
          • The answer is easy if you take it logically
            Stick -- Wednesday, 15 February 2012, at 8:29 p.m.
            • The answer is easy if you take it logically
              Daniel Murphy -- Wednesday, 15 February 2012, at 9:17 p.m.
              • The answer is easy if you take it logically
                Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 15 February 2012, at 10:11 p.m.
                • The answer is easy if you take it logically
                  Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 15 February 2012, at 10:13 p.m.
                  • The answer is easy if you take it logically
                    Sam Pottle -- Thursday, 16 February 2012, at 3:56 p.m.
            • The answer is easy if you take it logically
              David -- Wednesday, 15 February 2012, at 9:41 p.m.
  • There must be 50 ways to make a blunder... *NM*
    David Rennie -- Wednesday, 15 February 2012, at 1:19 a.m.
    • There must be 50 ways to make a blunder...
      Stein Kulseth -- Wednesday, 15 February 2012, at 11:54 p.m.
      • +1 rooting for Mott *NM*
        Daniel Murphy -- Thursday, 16 February 2012, at 12:20 a.m.
  • logically - RO
    Daniel Murphy -- Wednesday, 15 February 2012, at 9:27 p.m.