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Still not doubling early at DMP! — Variant *** Rollout ***

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Thursday, 16 February 2012, at 9:13 p.m.

In Response To: Still not doubling early at DMP! — Variant (Daniel Murphy)

Since nobody was getting the correct answer in my original post, I put this variant out to nudge readers in the right direction. Missing the double here is itself a double of sorts: a double whopper!





White is Player 2

score: 5
pip: 63
7 point match
pip: 88
score: 5

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BBBCBB--------b--abbBbbd-:0:0:1:00:5:5:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 46.661% (G:4.308% B:0.039%) 47.915% (G:3.016% B:0.013%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 53.339% (G:0.888% B:0.005%) 52.085% (G:0.776% B:0.002%)
Cubeless Equities -0.0046 -0.1175
Cubeful Equities
No double:-0.3479 (-0.2304)±0.0010 (-0.3490..-0.3469)
Double/Take:-0.1175±0.0027 (-0.1202..-0.1148)
Double/Pass:+1.0000 (+1.1175)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 45141817
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 3 minutes 21 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01, MET: Kazaross XG2

Mike

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