Daily Quiz 2/16
Posted By: Timothy Chow In Response To: Daily Quiz 2/16 (Daily Quiz)
Date: Saturday, 18 February 2012, at 5:04 p.m.
In Response To: Daily Quiz 2/16 (Daily Quiz)
1. This should be a take because if Blue misses then White is doing fine, being ahead in the race, and even if Blue hits, White is not dead in the water. Still, I would double here.
2. I think 18/15 will win more games but lose more gammons. White's gammon value is close to normal here. I'm not seeing too many immediate rolls where 18/15 pays off. I hate burning all our home-board spares but I reluctantly play 3/1 2/1.
3. Can we still win by hanging back? White has 6 blotting rolls and then we have to hit and win from there. Maybe 1.5% to 2% winning chances? What are our chances of losing a gammon if we hang back? Even if White rolls 66, we should be a favorite to get off the gammon. I'll hang back. 6/1 is forced and then 5/4 looks natural; the chances of covering the 5pt are small and we don't want a second checker hit if we're lucky enough to hit our shot.
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