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Your drop decision

Posted By: Maik Stiebler
Date: Wednesday, 22 February 2012, at 6:11 p.m.

In Response To: Average # of Blunders per Match (Giant) (Stick)

After seeing the bot analysis, are you still happy with your skill difference induced drop? Against that opponent, what do you think are your MWC's after drop and take, respectively?

For reference (note the less than super-strong settings):

		White is Player 1 score: 0 pip: 92 9 point match pip: 101 score: 2 Blue is Player 2
XGID=-B-CABCaC--ab-----abbb-bbA:2:-1:-1:00:0:2:0:9:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No redouble	Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances:	80,54% (G:6,25% B:0,08%)	80,67% (G:6,95% B:0,04%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	19,46% (G:2,99% B:0,08%)	19,33% (G:4,54% B:0,13%)
Cubeless Equities	+0,617	+0,915
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:	+0,851 (-0,006)	±0,004 (+0,847..+0,855)
Redouble/Take:	+0,856	±0,007 (+0,849..+0,864)
Redouble/Pass:	+1,000 (+0,144)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 2-ply, cube decisions: 3-ply Red
Double Decision confidence:		90,8%
Take Decision confidence:		100,0%
Duration: 56,0 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01, MET: Kazaross XG2

Messages In This Thread

• Average # of Blunders per Match (Giant)
  Stick -- Monday, 20 February 2012, at 10:19 p.m.
  • Average # of Blunders per Match (Giant)
    Daniel Murphy -- Monday, 20 February 2012, at 10:46 p.m.
    • Average # of Blunders per Match (Giant)
      Bill Riles -- Monday, 20 February 2012, at 11:56 p.m.
      • Average # of Blunders per Match (Giant)
        Daniel Murphy -- Tuesday, 21 February 2012, at 12:22 a.m.
    • Responding to Daniel, PR of Giant-32
      Paul Weaver -- Tuesday, 21 February 2012, at 12:57 a.m.
      • Responding to Daniel, PR of Giant-32
        Iancho Hristov -- Tuesday, 21 February 2012, at 2:09 a.m.
  • Average # of Blunders per Match (Giant)
    Bill Riles -- Monday, 20 February 2012, at 11:50 p.m.
    • Average # of Blunders per Match (Giant)
      Jake Jacobs -- Tuesday, 21 February 2012, at 3:20 a.m.
      • Average # of Blunders per Match (Giant)
        Bill Riles -- Tuesday, 21 February 2012, at 1:37 p.m.
        • Average # of Blunders per Match (Giant)
          Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 21 February 2012, at 7:14 p.m.
          • Average # of Blunders per Match (Giant)
            Stick -- Tuesday, 21 February 2012, at 9:02 p.m.
            • Average # of Blunders per Match (Giant)
              christian munk-christensen -- Tuesday, 21 February 2012, at 9:09 p.m.
        • Average # of Blunders per Match (Giant)
          Jake Jacobs -- Wednesday, 22 February 2012, at 5:30 a.m.
          • Average # of Blunders per Match (Giant)
            Stick -- Wednesday, 22 February 2012, at 5:33 a.m.
            • Average # of Blunders per Match (Giant)
              rew -- Wednesday, 22 February 2012, at 11:04 a.m.
              • Average # of Blunders per Match (Giant)
                rew -- Wednesday, 22 February 2012, at 2:44 p.m.
  • Side question: definition of blunder
    Carlo Melzi -- Tuesday, 21 February 2012, at 12:20 a.m.
    • Definition of blunder: 0.06
      Paul Weaver -- Tuesday, 21 February 2012, at 12:35 a.m.
      • Definition of blunder: 0.06
        Colin Owen -- Tuesday, 21 February 2012, at 11:21 p.m.
      • Definition of blunder: 0.06
        Nack Ballard -- Wednesday, 29 February 2012, at 4:56 p.m.
        • Definition of blunder: 0.06
          Carlo Melzi -- Wednesday, 29 February 2012, at 5:33 p.m.
          • Definition of blunder: 0.06
            storm -- Wednesday, 29 February 2012, at 6:21 p.m.
          • Definition of blunder: 0.06
            Stick -- Wednesday, 29 February 2012, at 11:50 p.m.
            • Definition of blunder: 0.06
              Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 1 March 2012, at 1:18 a.m.
              • Definition of blunder: 0.06
                Stick -- Thursday, 1 March 2012, at 5:07 a.m.
                • Jeremy Bagai's brilliant example
                  Timothy Chow -- Friday, 2 March 2012, at 2:10 a.m.
                  • Jeremy Bagai's brilliant example
                    Stick -- Friday, 2 March 2012, at 2:21 a.m.
                  • Jeremy Bagai's brilliant example
                    Bob Koca -- Friday, 2 March 2012, at 7:27 p.m.
        • Definition of blunder: 0.06
          garyo -- Wednesday, 29 February 2012, at 7:53 p.m.
        • Definition of blunder: 0.06
          Christian Munk-Christensen -- Thursday, 1 March 2012, at 3:00 p.m.
          • trollolololol +1 *NM*
            Benf -- Thursday, 1 March 2012, at 6:07 p.m.
    • Side question: definition of blunder
      Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 21 February 2012, at 4:03 p.m.
    • Side question: definition of blunder
      neilkaz -- Tuesday, 21 February 2012, at 5:53 p.m.
    • Side question: definition of blunder
      Daniel Murphy -- Tuesday, 21 February 2012, at 7:37 p.m.
      • Side question: definition of blunder
        Stick -- Tuesday, 21 February 2012, at 7:55 p.m.
        • Side question: definition of blunder
          Stein Kulseth -- Tuesday, 21 February 2012, at 10:49 p.m.
      • Side question: definition of blunder
        Timothy Chow -- Wednesday, 22 February 2012, at 12:25 a.m.
  • Average # of Blunders per Match (Giant)
    Michael Nielsen -- Tuesday, 21 February 2012, at 12:46 a.m.
  • Average # of Blunders per Match (Giant)
    Stick -- Wednesday, 22 February 2012, at 4:15 a.m.
    • Question for Stick
      David -- Wednesday, 22 February 2012, at 3:06 p.m.
      • Question for Stick
        Timothy Chow -- Wednesday, 22 February 2012, at 3:10 p.m.
        • Question for Stick
          Christian Munk-Christensen -- Thursday, 23 February 2012, at 8:41 a.m.
          • Question for Stick
            Stick -- Thursday, 23 February 2012, at 8:51 a.m.
            • Question for Stick
              Christian Munk-Christensen -- Thursday, 23 February 2012, at 9:09 a.m.
              • Question for Stick
                Stick -- Thursday, 23 February 2012, at 9:17 a.m.
                • Question for Stick
                  Christian Munk-Christensen -- Thursday, 23 February 2012, at 10:28 a.m.
                  • Question for Stick
                    Stick -- Thursday, 23 February 2012, at 10:33 a.m.
                    • Question for Stick
                      Christian Munk-Christensen -- Thursday, 23 February 2012, at 11:03 a.m.
                      • Question for Stick
                        Stick -- Thursday, 23 February 2012, at 11:20 a.m.
                        • Question for Stick
                          christian munk-christensen -- Thursday, 23 February 2012, at 5:04 p.m.
                          • Question for Stick
                            Stick -- Thursday, 23 February 2012, at 5:42 p.m.
                        • +1 *NM*
                          Carlo Melzi -- Thursday, 23 February 2012, at 5:39 p.m.
              • Example for clarification
                Maik Stiebler -- Thursday, 23 February 2012, at 10:03 a.m.
                • Simple Example
                  Stick -- Thursday, 23 February 2012, at 10:15 a.m.
                  • Simple Example
                    rew -- Thursday, 23 February 2012, at 11:21 a.m.
                • Example for clarification
                  christian munk-christensen -- Thursday, 23 February 2012, at 5:00 p.m.
                  • Example for clarification
                    rew -- Thursday, 23 February 2012, at 5:23 p.m.
                    • Example for clarification
                      Christian Munk-Christensen -- Friday, 24 February 2012, at 8:33 a.m.
                      • Example for clarification
                        Stick -- Friday, 24 February 2012, at 9:04 a.m.
                        • Example for clarification
                          Casper van der Tak -- Friday, 24 February 2012, at 10:02 a.m.
                          • Example for clarification
                            Stick -- Friday, 24 February 2012, at 10:09 a.m.
                            • Agreed! *NM*
                              Casper van der Tak -- Friday, 24 February 2012, at 10:44 a.m.
                        • Example for clarification
                          Christian Munk-Christensen -- Friday, 24 February 2012, at 10:57 a.m.
                  • Example for clarification
                    Maik Stiebler -- Thursday, 23 February 2012, at 5:35 p.m.
                  • Example for clarification
                    Daniel Murphy -- Thursday, 23 February 2012, at 5:50 p.m.
                    • Example for clarification
                      christian munk-christensen -- Thursday, 23 February 2012, at 10:24 p.m.
                      • Example for clarification
                        Daniel Murphy -- Friday, 24 February 2012, at 12:05 a.m.
    • Average # of Blunders per Match (Giant)
      Timothy Chow -- Wednesday, 22 February 2012, at 3:14 p.m.
    • Your drop decision
      Maik Stiebler -- Wednesday, 22 February 2012, at 6:11 p.m.
      • Your drop decision
        Henrik Bukkjaer -- Thursday, 23 February 2012, at 1:41 a.m.
    • Average # of Blunders per Match (Giant)
      Bob Koca -- Thursday, 23 February 2012, at 3:03 a.m.
      • Average # of Blunders per Match (Giant)
        Christian Munk-Christensen -- Thursday, 23 February 2012, at 7:31 a.m.
        • Average # of Blunders per Match (Giant)
          Stick -- Thursday, 23 February 2012, at 8:07 a.m.
    • Average # of Blunders per Match (Giant)
      Christian Munk-Christensen -- Thursday, 23 February 2012, at 7:42 a.m.
      • Average # of Blunders per Match (Giant)
        Stick -- Thursday, 23 February 2012, at 8:04 a.m.
        • Average # of Blunders per Match (Giant)
          Christian Munk-Christensen -- Thursday, 23 February 2012, at 8:53 a.m.
          • Average # of Blunders per Match (Giant)
            Stick -- Thursday, 23 February 2012, at 9:12 a.m.
        • Average # of Blunders per Match (Giant)
          Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 23 February 2012, at 6:22 p.m.
          • Average # of Blunders per Match (Giant)
            Stick -- Thursday, 23 February 2012, at 6:35 p.m.
            • Average # of Blunders per Match (Giant)
              Neil Robins -- Wednesday, 29 February 2012, at 11:36 a.m.