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Correct Cube Play

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Thursday, 23 February 2012, at 4:31 a.m.

In Response To: Correct Cube Play (RobertFontaine)

Let's take another look at the Keith Count.

Creamy's Keith count is (36+8+1+1) * 8/7 = 52 with the added 1/7 rounded down, 52.57 unrounded. Brownie's Keith count is 47+2+1 = 50. So Creamy's count is 2 more than Brownie's.

Keith Count money game doubling guidelines
Leader's count exceeds Trailer's by no more than 4=double=~68% GWC
Leader's count exceeds Trailer's by no more than 3=redouble=~71% GWC
Leader's count exceeds Trailer's by no more than 2=take=~78% GWC

Those are the GWC's I associate with Keith Count counts +4 +3 and +2, based on Tom's estimate of average optimal redoubling points based on his database of cube decisions.

So, the Keith Count estimates Creamy's GWC at 78% (rounded) or perhaps 74.5% (unrounded, with Keith Count of 2.5 putting GWC half-way between 78% and 71%). Which makes Brownie's GWC 22% or 25.5%.

Brownie's take point on a 4-cube at 3-away all is ~24.88%.

So, if Brownie rounded down when he added the 1/7th, he passed and that was right. If he didn't round down, he took and made a very small error since Brownie only wins 24.68% here, and needs 24.88% to take.

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