Posted By: neilkaz In Response To: Racing Redouble (RobertFontaine)
Date: Monday, 19 March 2012, at 3:31 p.m.
In Response To: Racing Redouble (RobertFontaine)
You'll play a lot of 5 pt matches during your life and many longer ones will end up being 5 pt matches. It pays to know things like this with stone cold certainty, and it also pays to be able to quickly do the math OTB just to double check any doubts you may have concerning your memory.
I did stuff like this 35 years ago and for something this basic you didn't even need a MET (although I'd made my own). My thoughts were as follows.. if the leader passes the score is tied so the ME is 50%. If the leader takes the 4 cube and wins, he wins the match, and if he loses the score is 4-2C and he needs to win the next two games to win the match so his ME is obviously 25%.
I hadn't realized way back then the concept that by taking the leader was risking 25% to gain 50% so his TP was 1/3 or 33.3%. But I was able to do the basic algebra in my head and see that if the leader wins the game 1/3 of the time, he wins the match 1/3 of the time, and he also wins 1/4 of the 2/3 of the time he loses the game. 1/3 + 1/4 of 2/3 = 1/2..so way back 35 years ago I knew that the TP here was 1/3.
So...do the math...double check the risk/reward calculation algrebraicly and if in a couple weeks you can't recall the TP, do the math again. By doing the work yourself, you're more likely to remember it and you also develop your ability to do these calcs in reasonable time OTB.
.. neilkaz ..
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