Posted By: RobertFontaine In Response To: Racing Redouble (neilkaz)
Date: Monday, 19 March 2012, at 10:00 p.m.
In Response To: Racing Redouble (neilkaz)
I'm appreciating the input. It helps putting all the piece together. This is a good example of TP = risk/risk+reward. = .25/.25+.50 (1/3) Now I get how to apply it.
What still isn't clear to me is that when I do a keith count and the result is 5 (No Double/Take) that I have a close take for money (22.5%) and that I actually have 27% (xgroller++) rather than 33%.
With Keith - Redouble/Take is between 2 and 3. Double/Take is 4. Is 5 borderline??
If I were to do both a Trice Count and a Keith Count and get disparate answers (Trice says Double/Take) this might have been a clue that it was borderline but otb it's a stretch for me to get one count in. Looking at this positions as a 7 roll position
I just looked up the odds on N-Roll positions
These are the winning probabilities in an n-roll position:
Had I known these reference points I would have been thinking somewhere between a 7 and 8 roll position by eye 22.5% < 33% (drop). But I would have still been a full 5% off in my estimate of equity in this position. How do you find the extra 5% in this positon?
Messages In This Thread
BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.