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Racing Redouble

Posted By: RobertFontaine
Date: Monday, 19 March 2012, at 10:00 p.m.

In Response To: Racing Redouble (neilkaz)

I'm appreciating the input. It helps putting all the piece together. This is a good example of TP = risk/risk+reward. = .25/.25+.50 (1/3) Now I get how to apply it.

What still isn't clear to me is that when I do a keith count and the result is 5 (No Double/Take) that I have a close take for money (22.5%) and that I actually have 27% (xgroller++) rather than 33%.

With Keith - Redouble/Take is between 2 and 3. Double/Take is 4. Is 5 borderline??

If I were to do both a Trice Count and a Keith Count and get disparate answers (Trice says Double/Take) this might have been a clue that it was borderline but otb it's a stretch for me to get one count in. Looking at this positions as a 7 roll position

I just looked up the odds on N-Roll positions

These are the winning probabilities in an n-roll position:

Rolls CPW

2 86

3 79

4 75

5 72

6 70

7 68

8 67

Had I known these reference points I would have been thinking somewhere between a 7 and 8 roll position by eye 22.5% < 33% (drop). But I would have still been a full 5% off in my estimate of equity in this position. How do you find the extra 5% in this positon?

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