Posted By: Daniel Murphy In Response To: Racing Redouble (RobertFontaine)
Date: Monday, 19 March 2012, at 11:32 p.m.
In Response To: Racing Redouble (RobertFontaine)
What still isn't clear to me is that when I do a keith count and the result is 5 (No Double/Take) that I have a close take for money (22.5%)
What did you mean to say? Keith Count 5 is a near double for money, not a close take, i.e., no double, easy take with the taker winning perhaps 34% of the time.
Keith count 2 -> take -> 78%% / 22%
Keith count >3 -> redouble -> 71% / 29%
Keith count >4 -> double -> 68%% / 32%
So, the question is not why the taker wins 27.8% cubeless instead of 22.5%, but why the taker wins only 27.8% instead of ~34% from the Keith count, or only 27.8% instead of about 33% in a 7.5-roll position. Because: with so many nonworking doublets, the underdog wins far less than often than in a 7-roll position.
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