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Daily Quiz 3/16

Posted By: kruidenbuiltje
Date: Tuesday, 20 March 2012, at 12:20 p.m.

In Response To: Daily Quiz 3/16 (Daily Quiz)

Number 1:

For a position to be a good action double there need to be a rather high chance of gammons, to compensate for the low direct hitting chance.

When blue hits both checkers i think the gammons are in the 40% range, however it's far from certain that blue hits the second checker after hitting the first one.

I estimate the equity as follows:

0,40 0,08 -0,60 -0,01 = -0,13

So I think blue is not even the favourite here, when blue doesn't throw a 1 or 43 white becomes a clear favourite.

Solution: No Double

Number 2:

After this move (without hitting) blue is 85 pips ahead in the race. So 13/7(2) gives white a chance (of at least 11/36) to play a very well timed 3-1 (or perhaps 3-2) backgame. His 4 to 6 point are already ready, so he is not bound to get overtimed, after something like 17x14/11 16/10 his checkers from the bar will probably enter in time.

The move 4x1(2) 17x14 8/5 reduces the chance of white playing a 3-2 or 4-3 backgame to at least 2/36. The blue strategy should be to create a lot of builders for the 4- and 2-point and try to make this point.

Playing 13/10 instead of 17x14 creates an extra builder for the 4-point, but it makes blue vulnerable for returns with D2, D3 and D4. But since the disadvantage only takes place in 3/36 of the time and the advantage of the 4th builder 33/36 of the time, I guess it might be better.

Solution: 4x1(2) 8/5 13/10

Number 3:

The race before the move is 167-148, so blue has too little timing for a good 3-1 backgame. Because of the hole on the bar-point the position still has a proto-backgame character. Playing purely for important points is the best strategy in these situations.

23/18 6/5 is very pure, but too risky, because of the high blitz risk.

Solution: 8/7 23/18

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