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OLM Tu 03/20/12

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Wednesday, 21 March 2012, at 4:53 p.m.

In Response To: OLM Tu 03/20/12 (Jason Lee)

The probability of backgammon loss can be approximated by setting up this position and evaluating in Gnubg or whatever the equivalent is with XG:

White on roll

White24

4X '4X2X ' ' ' ' ' ' ' '

' ' ' '3O ' ' ' ' ' ' '
Blue15
Position ID: cAAA8LwBAAAAAA Match ID: EQEAAAAAAAAE

Rolls to bear offWhiteBlue
100.000%05.550%
200.000%34.491%
303.235%55.381%
419.261%04.543%
540.136%00.029%
636.457%00.000%
700.911%00.000%

0.40136 * 0.00029 =0.0001163944
0.19261 * 0.04720 =0.009091664
0.03235 * 0.59953 =0.0193947955
0.0286028539 = 2.86%

You could do the same with 2 checkers on the 5 point and find the chance of losing a backgammon is very small. There would be more backgammon losses in the online position, however, from blots being hit, which would impact the blottier 4-3 plays more. And 1-1 or 2-2 may not play optimally in the OLM, after any play.

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