1) You expected truely and I wonder how can do you? Did you memorize the pos. before?
         
 
         
 | | White is bukalemune
score: 0
pip: 156 | | 7 point match | pip: 151
score: 0
Blue is XG Roller+ |
|
| XGID=-b---AD-E---dC---babb-b-B-:0:0:-1:00:0:0:0:7:10 |
| Blue on roll, cube action? |
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 67,18% (G:24,77% B:2,05%) | 67,40% (G:24,97% B:2,35%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 32,82% (G:8,06% B:0,56%) | 32,60% (G:8,23% B:0,60%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0,531 | +1,106 |
| Cubeful Equities |
| No double: | +0,768 (-0,093) | ±0,015 (+0,753..+0,782) |
 Double/Take: | +0,861 | ±0,021 (+0,839..+0,882) |
| Double/Pass: | +1,000 (+0,139) |
| |
| Best Cube action: Double / Take |
| Rollout details |
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 7295307
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
| |
| Double Decision confidence: | 100,0% |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100,0% |
| Duration: 27 minutes 12 seconds |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2
2) needs ammo to catch the blot if try to escape, or improve prime chance by closing barpt. so all other plays are Whoppers. 15pt is so close to 18pt so that 18pt can not be a good blocking pt.
   
| | White is XG Roller+
score: 2
pip: 116 | | 7 point match | pip: 148
score: 0
Blue is bukalemune |
|
| XGID=-a-BBBB-B------d-cBcC-bb--:0:0:1:65:0:2:0:7:10 |
| Blue to play 65 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 18/13 18/12 | eq: +0,565 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 63,29% (G:11,65% B:0,31%)
36,71% (G:7,73% B:0,29%) | Conf.: ± 0,022 (+0,543...+0,587) - [100,0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 14 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 20/9 | eq: +0,309 (-0,256) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 56,48% (G:10,90% B:0,25%)
43,52% (G:8,14% B:0,20%) | Conf.: ± 0,021 (+0,289...+0,330) - [0,0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 43 seconds |
|
| |
1 416 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 7295307
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2
3) again keeping 18pt is not imp. for blocking. instead diversify the checkers to increase keeping blot chance and if it is hit, beginning from the 24pt may be better while it has not board and also has a blot in the board tempts to play boldly.
| | White is XG Roller+
score: 2
pip: 103 | | 7 point match | pip: 131
score: 0
Blue is bukalemune |
|
| XGID=--ABBBB-AA-a---c-dBcB-ac--:0:0:1:62:0:2:0:7:10 |
| Blue to play 62 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 18/16 8/2 | eq: -0,654 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 30,00% (G:4,64% B:0,13%)
70,00% (G:4,37% B:0,06%) | Conf.: ± 0,010 (-0,664...-0,645) - [100,0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 28 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 9/7 8/2 | eq: -0,721 (-0,067) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 28,17% (G:2,80% B:0,05%)
71,83% (G:1,96% B:0,02%) | Conf.: ± 0,009 (-0,731...-0,712) - [0,0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 12 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 7295307
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2