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Two from Cleveland - redo MEC w/NK-RDR XG2 MET

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Saturday, 31 March 2012, at 7:38 p.m.

In Response To: Two from Cleveland (Chuck Bower)

Current score (drop/taker's PoV): 6-away, 5-away with cube already on 2.

Start by asking "what happens if cube is sent back at 8?" Pass trailing 5a, 2a or take for the match. 5a, 2a is 25.64% (not 25%). Now back to the 2 --> 4 takepoint.

Pass -- trail 6a, 3a for 28.88% (not 30%).

Take and win -- lead 2-away, 5-away for 74.36% (not 75%).

Take and lose -- trail 6a Crawford for 11.27% (not 11%).

So the "dead-cube" takepoint is (0.2888 - 0.1127)/(0.7436 - 0.1127) = 0.1761/0.6309 ~ 1/4)*0.704 /0.631 ~ 10/(4*9) ~ 27.8% MWC.

Now if the cube return potential is perfectly efficient then (from our first calc above) the cashpoint is 74.36% of 27.8% <~ 75%*27.8% ~ 20.9%. But the cube is almost never that efficient so it's somewhere between 20.9% and 27.8% and 2/3 of the way there is 23.2% which is my final estimate for the takepoint.

(Choice of MET matters quite a bit in this problem.)

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