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Rollout: When in doubt, hit

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Sunday, 1 April 2012, at 1:41 a.m.

In Response To: When in doubt, hit (Timothy Chow)

To answer Stick's question directly, I always begin analyzing my erroneous match-play decisions by seeing what happens if I switch to a money game. I was not too surprised that there was a difference between money and 4a7a here but I was surprised at the magnitude of the difference. I welcome any post hoc comments on the rollouts below.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 141
7 point match
pip: 117
score: 3

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-baCB-D-B-A-bB-----cbc-bA-:0:0:1:54:3:0:0:7:10
Blue to play 54

1.Rollout113/8 10/6eq: -0.418
Player:
Opponent:
42.24% (G:15.75% B:2.70%)
57.76% (G:20.18% B:0.84%)
Conf: ± 0.016 (-0.434...-0.402)
Duration: 1 hour 23 minutes
2.Rollout113/9 13/8eq: -0.467 (-0.049)
Player:
Opponent:
42.08% (G:17.02% B:2.66%)
57.92% (G:25.00% B:1.48%)
Conf: ± 0.019 (-0.486...-0.448)
Duration: 1 hour 42 minutes
3.Rollout18/4 8/3eq: -0.491 (-0.073)
Player:
Opponent:
41.46% (G:15.08% B:2.65%)
58.54% (G:23.45% B:0.98%)
Conf: ± 0.017 (-0.508...-0.474)
Duration: 1 hour 33 minutes
4.Rollout113/8 6/2* eq: -0.582 (-0.164)
Player:
Opponent:
41.59% (G:15.56% B:4.98%)
58.41% (G:27.84% B:2.99%)
Conf: ± 0.025 (-0.607...-0.557)
Duration: 2 hours 33 minutes
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross


For money:





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 141
Money session
Jacoby
pip: 117
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-baCB-D-B-A-bB-----cbc-bA-:0:0:1:54:0:0:1:0:10
Blue to play 54

1.Rollout113/8 6/2* eq: -0.269
Player:
Opponent:
43.14% (G:15.59% B:1.49%)
56.86% (G:25.78% B:2.77%)
Conf: ± 0.014 (-0.283...-0.255)
Duration: 2 hours 14 minutes
2.Rollout113/9 13/8eq: -0.349 (-0.080)
Player:
Opponent:
42.54% (G:16.46% B:1.39%)
57.46% (G:24.35% B:1.60%)
Conf: ± 0.015 (-0.364...-0.334)
Duration: 2 hours 36 minutes
3.Rollout113/8 10/6eq: -0.352 (-0.083)
Player:
Opponent:
42.20% (G:15.94% B:1.41%)
57.80% (G:20.24% B:0.84%)
Conf: ± 0.013 (-0.365...-0.339)
Duration: 2 hours 28 minutes
4.Rollout110/5 6/2* eq: -0.371 (-0.102)
Player:
Opponent:
42.87% (G:15.65% B:1.46%)
57.13% (G:28.12% B:2.09%)
Conf: ± 0.015 (-0.386...-0.356)
Duration: 2 hours 18 minutes
5.Rollout18/4 8/3eq: -0.404 (-0.135)
Player:
Opponent:
41.43% (G:14.73% B:1.23%)
58.57% (G:22.75% B:1.04%)
Conf: ± 0.015 (-0.419...-0.389)
Duration: 3 hours 01 minute
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

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