To answer Stick's question directly, I always begin analyzing my erroneous match-play decisions by seeing what happens if I switch to a money game. I was not too surprised that there was a difference between money and 4a7a here but I was surprised at the magnitude of the difference. I welcome any post hoc comments on the rollouts below.
| | White is Player 2
score: 0 pip: 141 | 7 point match | pip: 117 score: 3
Blue is Player 1 | |
XGID=-baCB-D-B-A-bB-----cbc-bA-:0:0:1:54:3:0:0:7:10 |
Blue to play 54 |
1. | Rollout1 | 13/8 10/6 | eq: -0.418 |
| Player: Opponent: | 42.24% (G:15.75% B:2.70%) 57.76% (G:20.18% B:0.84%) | Conf: ± 0.016 (-0.434...-0.402) Duration: 1 hour 23 minutes |
|
2. | Rollout1 | 13/9 13/8 | eq: -0.467 (-0.049) |
| Player: Opponent: | 42.08% (G:17.02% B:2.66%) 57.92% (G:25.00% B:1.48%) | Conf: ± 0.019 (-0.486...-0.448) Duration: 1 hour 42 minutes |
|
3. | Rollout1 | 8/4 8/3 | eq: -0.491 (-0.073) |
| Player: Opponent: | 41.46% (G:15.08% B:2.65%) 58.54% (G:23.45% B:0.98%) | Conf: ± 0.017 (-0.508...-0.474) Duration: 1 hour 33 minutes |
|
4. | Rollout1 | 13/8 6/2* | eq: -0.582 (-0.164) |
| Player: Opponent: | 41.59% (G:15.56% B:4.98%) 58.41% (G:27.84% B:2.99%) | Conf: ± 0.025 (-0.607...-0.557) Duration: 2 hours 33 minutes |
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1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 2 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross
For money:
| | White is Player 2
score: 0 pip: 141 | Money session Jacoby | pip: 117 score: 0
Blue is Player 1 | |
XGID=-baCB-D-B-A-bB-----cbc-bA-:0:0:1:54:0:0:1:0:10 |
Blue to play 54 |
1. | Rollout1 | 13/8 6/2* | eq: -0.269 |
| Player: Opponent: | 43.14% (G:15.59% B:1.49%) 56.86% (G:25.78% B:2.77%) | Conf: ± 0.014 (-0.283...-0.255) Duration: 2 hours 14 minutes |
|
2. | Rollout1 | 13/9 13/8 | eq: -0.349 (-0.080) |
| Player: Opponent: | 42.54% (G:16.46% B:1.39%) 57.46% (G:24.35% B:1.60%) | Conf: ± 0.015 (-0.364...-0.334) Duration: 2 hours 36 minutes |
|
3. | Rollout1 | 13/8 10/6 | eq: -0.352 (-0.083) |
| Player: Opponent: | 42.20% (G:15.94% B:1.41%) 57.80% (G:20.24% B:0.84%) | Conf: ± 0.013 (-0.365...-0.339) Duration: 2 hours 28 minutes |
|
4. | Rollout1 | 10/5 6/2* | eq: -0.371 (-0.102) |
| Player: Opponent: | 42.87% (G:15.65% B:1.46%) 57.13% (G:28.12% B:2.09%) | Conf: ± 0.015 (-0.386...-0.356) Duration: 2 hours 18 minutes |
|
5. | Rollout1 | 8/4 8/3 | eq: -0.404 (-0.135) |
| Player: Opponent: | 41.43% (G:14.73% B:1.23%) 58.57% (G:22.75% B:1.04%) | Conf: ± 0.015 (-0.419...-0.389) Duration: 3 hours 01 minute |
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1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 2 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21