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Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Tuesday, 10 October 2006, at 11:19 p.m.

In Response To: Very Interesting Gammon v. Games Won Tradeoff (Stick)

I made the right play OTG, 16/5, but after analyzing the session Snowie 3 ply had hitting so close I decided to roll it out and see if anyone was piggy enough to try to get the gammon here. [If never crossed my mind to play 16/11*/5 btw, that's just suicidal here!] I'm pretty oinky in general, but here I thought I win close to 100% of the games by passing up on the hit so the gammons would have to be wayyyyy up there.

Money Game
121
79
Board image courtesy of GO-Figure

# Ply Move Equity
1 R 16/5 0.996
0.0% 0.7% 99.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.987 ±0.001. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 1296 games, played 3-ply (precise), seed 1, with race database.
2 R 16/11* 7/1 0.936 (-0.060)
0.0% 41.1% 80.6% 19.4% 1.5% 0.0%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 1.008 ±0.007. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 1296 games (equiv. 76017 games), played 3-ply (precise), seed 1, with race database.

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