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21S-21 data — Clarification received.

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Thursday, 7 June 2012, at 11:27 p.m.

In Response To: 21S-21 data — Clarification requested. (Taper_Mike)

This exchange began when I asked for help in reconciling two similar nacbracs that had been reported for 21S-21 at gammon-go.

g[$ S11 U39] /15*5 BGO Msg. No. 67371 5/17/2010
g[$ S11 U36] /15*5 BGO Msg. No. 85671 1/9/2011 (final sentence)

Nack gives the proper explantion in BGO Msg. No. 120252. These nacbracs are not reports of rollouts at all. They are nacbracs for an aggregation of two GnuBg rollouts. The table below gives links to both of the original rollouts. The first nacbracs above is correct; the second seems to be in error.

21S-21 — Gammon Go
Bot Seed Equity Nacbracs Link
GnuBg 2-ply [Nack 10k + Stick 5k] +196.197 g[$ S11 U39] /15*5 [Aggregate]
GnuBg 2-ply 813122795 +196.917 g[$ S10 U39] /5 Stick
GnuBg 2-ply 868713073 +195.837 g[$ S11] /10 Nack Ballard

In an effort to determine whether both nacbracs might be correct, I set GnuBg to display 6 digits (instead of the lowly 4 I had been using previously), and recalculated the aggregate nacbracs. I computed averages weighted by the numbers of trials, and separately averaged absolute equities and relative equities. My results are given below.

Absolute Equities — g[$ S11 U38] /15*5
Aggregate Amount is a weighted average of the rollouts by Nack & Stick.
Aggregate Nack Stick
Play Amount Trails by Trials Amount Trials Amount Trials
$ 196.197 15552 195.837 10368 196.917 5184
S 185.438 10.759 15552 184.692 10368 186.931 5184
U 157.920 38.277 5184 157.920 5184

Relative Equities — g[$ S11 U39] /15*5
Aggregate Amount is a weighted average of the rollouts by Nack & Stick.
Aggregate Nack Stick
Play Amount Trials Amount Trials Amount Trials
$ 0 15552 0 10368 0 5184
S 10.759 15552 11.145 10368 9.986 5184
U 38.997 5184 38.997 5184

Even when I average absolute equities, I cannot get anywhere near to the U36 reported at the beginning of this post. My conclusion is simply that there has been some sort of a typographic error. I have deleted the corresponding nacbracs from my database.

Thanks to all who contributed to this exchange.

Key: $ = Slot (13/11 6/5), S = Split (24/23 13/11), U = Up (24/21), Explanation of nacbracs

Mike

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