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*Rollouts*

Posted By: Bob Koca
Date: Wednesday, 27 June 2012, at 12:16 a.m.

In Response To: *Rollouts* (Dmitriy Obukhov)

I wanted to see if the score is an argument for or against the double compared to money play and did longer rollouts and also did Money without Jacoby which I think is a better comparison.

It hardly makes a difference but the double is wrong by slightly more at score than for money. .068 vs. .060





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 134
7 point match
pip: 112
score: 1

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-bBC-BBAA---bB---bBccba---:0:0:1:00:1:0:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 64.924% (G:17.717% B:1.153%) 65.026% (G:17.756% B:1.226%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 35.076% (G:9.617% B:0.439%) 34.974% (G:9.646% B:0.492%)
Cubeless Equities +0.4079 +0.8806
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.6257±0.0026 (+0.6232..+0.6283)
Double/Take:+0.5581 (-0.0676)±0.0032 (+0.5549..+0.5614)
Double/Pass:+1.0000 (+0.3743)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 13.3%
Rollout details
41472 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 13 hours 21 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 134
Unlimited Game
pip: 112
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-bBC-BBAA---bB---bBccba---:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 64.984% (G:17.369% B:1.074%) 65.093% (G:17.379% B:1.088%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 35.016% (G:9.529% B:0.389%) 34.907% (G:9.501% B:0.388%)
Cubeless Equities +0.3849 +0.7753
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.6038±0.0026 (+0.6012..+0.6064)
Double/Take:+0.5442 (-0.0596)±0.0031 (+0.5411..+0.5474)
Double/Pass:+1.0000 (+0.3962)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 11.6%
Rollout details
41472 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 15 hours 06 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02

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