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Is this Bagaic?

Posted By: Dmitriy Obukhov
Date: Wednesday, 27 June 2012, at 3:40 a.m.

In Response To: Is this Bagaic? (David Levy)

Not even That much.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 133
7 point match
pip: 138
score: 4

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aa-BBCB-A---bB---b-dbCba--:0:0:1:00:4:0:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 74.57% (G:35.07% B:2.05%) 74.85% (G:34.95% B:3.11%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25.43% (G:6.33% B:0.29%) 25.15% (G:6.07% B:0.47%)
Cubeless Equities +0.805 +1.339
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.835±0.008 (+0.827..+0.843)
Double/Take:+0.809 (-0.025)±0.014 (+0.795..+0.823)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.165)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 11.7%
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 36
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:99.9%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 19 minutes 10 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

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