If I wanted to get better at this game, this is the sort of work I would have to do... [Aside: I've managed to invert some of the diagrams. I am doing analysis here and not rollouts. I also have left the original score, so money play will be different.]
NK: "I am underrating the likely 2 pt game"
The two point game wins about 15% while losing 40+% gammons.
          
 
        
 | | White is Player 2
score: 4
pip: 50 | | 7 point match | pip: 132
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=aCaCDBB-----b----b-db-ba--:1:-1:-1:32:4:0:0:7:10 |
| Blue to play 32 |
| 1. | XG Roller++ | Bar/23 13/10 | eq: -0.891 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 14.78% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
85.22% (G:40.67% B:1.41%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2
NK: "...and over rating the opps chances if I get hit right away after switching."
22% wins and 46% gammons:
   
| | White is Player 2
score: 4
pip: 51 | | 7 point match | pip: 134
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=bCBCCAC-----b----b-db-ba--:1:-1:-1:52:4:0:0:7:10 |
| Blue to play 52 |
| 1. | XG Roller++ | Bar/20* | eq: -0.668 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 22.17% (G:1.53% B:0.04%)
77.83% (G:46.21% B:0.30%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2
The condition of defender's board is crucial. With the four point, switching is awful.
  
      
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 128 | | 7 point match | pip: 55
score: 4
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=aCaDCBC-----b----b-bbbba--:1:-1:1:32:4:0:0:7:10 |
| Blue to play 32 |
| 1. | XG Roller++ | 6/4 3/Off | eq: +1.028 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 86.93% (G:53.09% B:1.25%)
13.07% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller++ | 6/1 | eq: +0.944 (-0.084) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 85.15% (G:47.34% B:0.69%)
14.85% (G:0.01% B:0.00%) | |
|
| 3. | XG Roller++ | 5/2* 4/2 | eq: +0.902 (-0.126) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 82.24% (G:62.52% B:0.40%)
17.76% (G:1.16% B:0.04%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2
Indeed, just covering the blot on the deuce point makes the switch slightly wrong.
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 128 | | 7 point match | pip: 55
score: 4
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=aCaDCBC-----b----b-cb-bb--:1:-1:1:32:4:0:0:7:10 |
| Blue to play 32 |
| 1. | XG Roller++ | 6/4 3/Off | eq: +1.058 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 87.80% (G:54.13% B:1.25%)
12.20% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller++ | 5/2* 4/2 | eq: +1.035 (-0.022) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 86.14% (G:61.57% B:0.36%)
13.86% (G:0.65% B:0.02%) | |
|
| 3. | XG Roller++ | 6/1 | eq: +0.979 (-0.079) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 86.20% (G:48.96% B:0.67%)
13.80% (G:0.06% B:0.00%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2
Here's a break even position (at the score):
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 134 | | 7 point match | pip: 55
score: 4
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=aCaDCBC-----b----b-ccba---:1:-1:1:32:4:0:0:7:10 |
| Blue to play 32 |
| 1. | XG Roller++ | 5/2* 4/2 | eq: +1.080 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 86.59% (G:66.73% B:0.43%)
13.41% (G:0.86% B:0.02%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller++ | 6/4 3/Off | eq: +1.072 (-0.008) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 87.60% (G:56.82% B:1.39%)
12.40% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2