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Stick vs Merriman: XG++ Data Makes No Sense

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Monday, 30 July 2012, at 6:27 p.m.

In Response To: Stick vs Merriman: XG++ Data Makes No Sense (Paul Weaver)

I don't what exactly the problem is, but isn't it likely to have something to do with bad evaluations (that is, estimates of "cubeless" games results) at 7-ply truncation? I agree with Stick's comment that the cube is very unlikely to be used, so evaluations at point of double/pass should not be the problem.

XG Roller++ is: 360 Games using VR, truncated after 7 moves using 3-ply, stop when reaching 0.010 Confidence (minimum 180 games), first 2 decisions in 3-ply then 2-ply checker and 3-ply cube.

Neil's 4-ply/4-ply rollout and Stick's 3-ply/XG Roller rollout correctly rank 10/5*/2 first. So will, I believe, a Gnubg 2-ply/2-ply rollout.

But if I duplicate the XG Roller++ settings in Gnubg, the result is similarly screwy, in that 10/5*/2 wins more "cubeless" games and gammons but 15/10 6/3 is ranked first:

White 0, Blue 8, match to 11 points

White174

 ' '2X '2X4X ' ' '1O ' '

2O2O3O2O1X4O ' ' '1O '3X
Blue72
Position ID: zB5wQHDbzUMQAA Match ID: UYluAQAAQAAE

Alert: doubtful move ( -0.012)

# Ply Move Equity
1 R 15/10 6/3 +1.289163
0.9461430.8857740.041681-0.0538570.0007160.000003 +1.362201 +1.289163
0.0010560.0016790.001585-0.0010560.0000990.000002 0.002733 0.003994
Truncated cubeful rollout (depth 7) with var.redn.
360 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 691526212 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
Different evaluations after 2 plies:
Player 0:
Play: 1-ply cubeful, noise 0.015 (d)
keep the first 5995833 0-ply moves
Cube: 2-ply cubeful, noise 0.015 (d)
Player 1:
Play: 1-ply cubeful prune
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
2 R 10/5*/2 +1.283965 ( -0.005198)
0.9491270.8940440.069789-0.0508730.0006370.000003 +1.372664 +1.283965
0.0010640.0018480.001795-0.0010640.0001080.000005 0.002838 0.004001
Truncated cubeful rollout (depth 7) with var.redn.
360 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 691526212 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
Different evaluations after 2 plies:
Player 0:
Play: 1-ply cubeful, noise 0.015 (d)
keep the first 5995833 0-ply moves
Cube: 2-ply cubeful, noise 0.015 (d)
Player 1:
Play: 1-ply cubeful prune
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
3 R 15/7 +1.277112 ( -0.012051)
0.9422080.8880340.043620-0.0577920.0020390.000025 +1.353855 +1.277112
0.0011490.0016360.001803-0.0011490.0003780.000007 0.002976 0.004339
Truncated cubeful rollout (depth 7) with var.redn.
360 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 691526212 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
Different evaluations after 2 plies:
Player 0:
Play: 1-ply cubeful, noise 0.015 (d)
keep the first 5995833 0-ply moves
Cube: 2-ply cubeful, noise 0.015 (d)
Player 1:
Play: 1-ply cubeful prune
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

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