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Rollout

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Thursday, 30 August 2012, at 8:10 p.m.

In Response To: Cube action? (John O'Hagan)

The takepoint formula at a normal match score like 11a-11a is 25% + half of the oppt's net g chances less something for recube vig. This position shows why it's important not to forget the middle step in this formula! I've noticed that when I make a bad take, it's usually because I badly underestimated the oppt's gammon chances. It would be easy to fall into this trap in this position since the pip counts are tied and Black will have reasonable chances to escape and turn this into a close race. It's clear that Black should win this over a quarter of the time so lots of players will quickly take the cube without worrying too much about their gammon-losing chances. They should though. The gammon threat is so high in this position that it's a monster pass and almost too good! White has 3 PoH numbers and hits loose with 17 more. You might hit back if hit loose but then there's that blot on your 2-pt to worry about. If White doesn't hit and you don't roll a 5, you will probably be attacked next time. If you do get a 5, all you will have is a close race. Double and a big pass.

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 134
11 point match
pip: 134
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=--aBBBB-B-B-e----c-cB-Aab-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 72.73% (G:39.26% B:0.68%) 73.14% (G:39.85% B:0.79%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 27.27% (G:5.37% B:0.16%) 26.86% (G:5.59% B:0.16%)
Cubeless Equities +0.805 +1.669
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.987 (-0.013)±0.007 (+0.980..+0.994)
Double/Take:+1.455 (+0.455)±0.011 (+1.443..+1.466)
Double/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 32 minutes 49 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00, MET: Kazaross XG2

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