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Recube action ATS?

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Friday, 31 August 2012, at 8:24 p.m.

In Response To: Recube action ATS? (John O'Hagan)

Brown trails 5a3a so his take point on a 4-cube = ~16%.

This is a big money pass despite the deficit of only 57-52 = 5 pips because Brown's position is so wasteful. Keith Count for White = 52+2+2+1+1 * 8/7 = 66, Keith Count for Brown = 57+6+2+1 = 66, which makes Brown 2 pips shy of a money take.

Supposing a money take is 22% GWC, I don't know if 2 pips after Keith Counting tends, generally, to be worth 6% GWC or not in races of about this length. 3% per pip seems high, but it could be so here. Two rolls for each player from now, White rates to have 11+ checkers left, and the other side rates to have just come in and be either 1 roll or 2 rolls and sometime 3 behind. An immediate doublet by Brown doesn't do much -- 66 only takes 2 off, 55 takes none off, 4-4 takes one off and leaves 3 checkers on the 6 above a gap on the 5 point and a single checker on the 4 point. Later in the bearoff Brown's 5-5 and 4-4 probably won't gain a full roll and 3-3 and 2-2 might not either.

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