Trailer needs 16% to take ATS. XG recubed me here so I needed to decide whether or not I had 16% wins. OTB, I tried to estimate each side's EPC. For White, I used 12.5 wasted pips for an EPC of 64.5 (it's actually 65.9) vs. 76 for Black (don't know what it actually is). Then I wanted to know what kind of a favorite the leader would be with these same EPC's if it was a pips vs. pips bearoff. So I subtracted 7 from each to get a pip count of 57.5 vs. 69. Kleinman's formula gives the 57.5 side just under 84% chances. I figured there would be a little less variance in the actual position than in the pips v pips position so that it was probably a close pass. It is a pass, and a little bigger than I thought.
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| XGID=-BCD-DBa-----------b-bccd-:1:1:1:00:2:0:0:5:10 | ||||
 on roll, cube action? | ||||
is Player 2| Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 85.41% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | 85.46% (G:0.13% B:0.00%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 14.59% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | 14.54% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.708 | +1.287 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No redouble: | +0.899 (-0.101) | ±0.001 (+0.898..+0.901) |
| Redouble/Take: | +1.075 (+0.075) | ±0.001 (+1.074..+1.075) |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1.000 | |
| Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 1 minute 21 seconds | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00, MET: Kazaross XG2