| |
BGonline.org Forums
Last sunday in the chouette...
Posted By: Timothy Chow In Response To: Last sunday in the chouette... (higonefive)
Date: Saturday, 1 September 2012, at 3:36 a.m.
The first candidate I'd consider is 7/3*, but that leaves 5 blots and Black has a three-point board, so I think it loses too many gammons. Not sure, though, so I'll keep this as a candidate in the back of my mind.
Next thing I'd look at is 11/8 + an ace. At first glance this duplicates Black's 5's to hit and make the front of his prime, but actually I think Black will jump out with a 5 whether or not he can hit with it, so I wouldn't call this duplication. Even if 11/8 works, it only makes a five-prime, and Black is at the edge of it, so it doesn't look worth it to me.
Next I look at whether splitting 24/23 gains anything. Black probably won't attack immediately because most of his attacking rolls let him do something better, like escape or make the front of his prime. But what good does splitting do? White is so far behind in the race that hanging on to the ace point as a backup plan looks better than trying to get those checkers moving.
Now we're down to the prosaic plays. I'm not sure what the right balance is between outfield coverage and shot minimization. 13/12 10/7 leaves 9 shots and 4 blots, which is almost a direct shot. It seems a bit much. 16/13 11/10 leaves no shots but seems too conservative. 11/7 and 10/6 are compromises, that also bring another checker within hitting range. 10/6 looks more natural but 11/7 duplicates White's 52.
Not at all sure about this play but I'd probably try 10/6.
| |
BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.