| Thanks for treating us to another great lesson.
After the late hit in one game, XG had borne off 6 checkers, and you faced the job of containing the hit checker. You will remember that a tough 33 caused one of the largest errors in the lesson.
After hitting loose on the 3pt, you remarked how the need to cover sometimes conflicts with the desire to beat the gammon. Bringing extra checkers within direct range gives you more chances to make the point, but also creates more double-hit opportunities for your opponent. Eventually you chose to play 19/16, 13/10(2), 6/3*, leaving only the roll 53 as double-hit number. (See diagram below.) Somewhat surprisingly, that move ranks 12th in the rollout below.
Nevertheless, the short rollout seems to indicate that you were on the right track. The reason your play ranks so low is evidentally because it brought only one checker within direct range to cover. The best play brings two, while limiting the risk of a double hit to the same chances as your move. The quickest way to win this game is to cover.
Any more exact explanation probably involves counting the hits and covers (and wins and gammons) for each candidate.
Mike | 
